November 14, 2009

Dispelling the Myth with Actual Data

This is for all you hater's (sub bears/vikings/cowboys, etc. fans) out there who like to make cracks about how the Pack screwed up by letting Favre go because "look how awesome he's doing with the Vikings," and "maybe if you still had Favre you guys would be 7-1 instead of Minnesota," and other stupid crap like that. Well, I know it's fun to take shots at your rivals (how's that new guy working out for you bears fans? ouch!!!), but it's also fun to prove the crackers (that is the guys who make cracks, not the racial slur for white people) wrong with actual logical argument and statistical data. So here's some info for you haters...

So, no doubt Favre is having a good year. He's more than proven that he can still play. To which I say...Good for him. But the thing that people don't seem to consider in the Favre vs. Rodgers debate is the fact that A) Favre has one of the best O-lines in the league compared to the Packer's quite obviously not one of the best O-lines in the league. And B) Favre has the #1 RB in the league compared to Rodgers who has an underperforming former back-up Giants RB. Dispite these-what I would consider rather significant-disadvantages, if you look at actual QB play and not *team* record or play, it's pretty clear the Pack made the right move. Here's the stats year-to-date, and also keep in mind that football players over the age of 80 tend to have a bit of a drop off in the second half of the season.

The 2 categories that Favre is actually leading in (not by much) are-

QB rating- Favre- 106 Rodgers- 103.3 (negligible difference)
INTs- Favre- 3 Rodgers- 5 (somewhat understandable considering the fact that Favre routinely has...all day to throw while Rodgers has appx. .03 seconds)

They tie in TDs with 16.

And, advantage Rodgers in-

Yds- Rodgers- 2255 Favre- 1925
Yds/Att- Rodgers- 8.67 Favre- 7.52 (in case you were tempted to say "he gets more attempts so of course he has more yards")
Yds/Gm- Rodgers- 282 Favre- 241
20+ yd comp- Rodgers- 30 Favre- 22 (with 5 being screens to AP or CT)
40+ yd comp- Rodgers- 10 Favre- 6 (with 2 being screens)

And the most key stat of all...

Sacks- Rodgers- 37 Favre- 18

Yes that's more than twice as many sacks. I know I know, "but all the talking heads say that it's Rodger's fault he gets sacked so much". Well, guess what, talking heads like statistical and logical analysis about as much as bears, vikings, and cowgirls fans do. Check the stats here (http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/6016/air-and-space-timing-rodgers-on-sacks). On only 9 of the 37 sacks did Rodgers hold the ball longer than 4 seconds (the generally accepted pocket time for a QB in a West-Coast offense), and only 3 times did he hold the ball longer than 4.7 seconds. So no, most of the sacks aren't Rodgers fault. Most of them are the crappy O-line's fault. And the reality is that if Brett was playing behind that same crappy O-line and with the same crappy run game, he would have much worse stats than Rodgers does, and would almost certainly have already re-re-re-retired (how many are we up to now?).

So quit hatin, and accept the fact that the Pack made the right move at the right time, and despite having other issues to sort out (O-line, rush game, Kampman covering Percy Harvin, etc.) they're set for a while at QB. (The bears on the other hand...not so sure.)

2 comments:

  1. I watched analysis on CBS by someone, who studied case by case his sacks, saying that 60% of the sacks Rodgers was taking should be blamed on him, not the O-Line. Either he's not throwing it away, or not throwing to third options as he should be if the first options aren't there.

    ReplyDelete
  2. The same CBS that thought it was a good idea to pay Katie Courick $20 million a year?

    ReplyDelete

Being in politics is like being a football coach. You have to be smart enough to understand the game, and dumb enough to think it's important.
-Eugene McCarthy