September 9, 2012

MY BOLD PREDICTIONS- The Final Chapter

Well, here we are fellas. The grand vision of one Mr. Patrick Daniel O'Keefe (nope, not his real middle name, as far as I know, but seemed like a moment where middle name usage was fitting) is coming to fruition. It hasn't been an easy road. We've met our fair share of challenges along the way. From the same Mr. O'Keefe's convenient "forgetting" to compile the stats following his disastrous first year one (more on this below), to the current mild tiff involving the (some say) untimely pickup of a certain Dallas Cowboys 3rd WR that has raged on unbeknownst to most outside the commissioner triad. It has been an ever entertaining past 3 years.

A brief glance over the annuls of the K-Town Keepers Redux (initially known as K-Town Open 2009), brought me back to our humble beginnings. A rag tag mix of self thought fantasy experts, newbie (to FF) dads who got suckered in by sons looking for easy trade pickin's from their seniors, and even a Puerto Rican who couldn't tell a pigskin football from a coon skin hat. None of us had any clue what this crazy league Patty-O had come up with had in store. Though we may not have realized it at the time, much of the tone for the next 3...scratch that, 4 years was being set even as we, at times heatedly, *debated* the best roster set up (I'm ever grateful that I was overruled by the majority on the QB & IDP debates because I think we nailed it with "option 2") and later the waiver wire system. Fake year one (AKA- the year Patty-O's strategy of drafting Matt Hasselbeck in the 3rd round and Lawrence Maroney in the 5th round all too predictably resulted in him missing the playoffs, and then not so predictably screwing up the entire year AND ERASING MY 1ST PLACE FINISH FOR THE YEAR, and causing us to start all over again) turned out to be too much for a few of our league mates (remember Wally, Miguel, Brian, & Paul anyone?) which allowed us to bring in some outstanding replacements in Ben, Juan (the aforementioned PR), Tony Sr (in the league already as a co-manager but now taking on a team of his own), and later Joe (the quitter, as Pat calls him) replaced by Raymond. It's possible that these initial 4 participants were scared off by the frequent and increasingly passionate discussion, from the waiver settings (got very heated) to the Steven Jackson for Daniel Manning trade (very interesting to re-read that whole debate, especially in light of last year's hub-bub over the Freeman & Best for Ray Rice trade) to the record setting 5 blog post 52 comment "Fire Sale" debate. Whatever the reason, with the exception of Paul who I thought fit in well in the league, I think we ended up with a better set of team managers the second go-around.

In addition to allowing some excellent new managers into the league, Pat's fortuitous slip up did allow for some much needed rejiggering of the rules. In fake year one of the league, Josh Cribbs was 5th in the league in total scoring only behind Rodgers, CJ2K, Brees, & Peyton Manning, and Darren Sproles wasn't far behind. We must have done a good job with our rejiggering because remarkably for this particular assembly of opinionated personas, 2010 went down with virtually no major controversies. The closest thing being the Matt Ryan & Ryan Matthews for Matt Schaub & Calvin Johnson trade between me and Ben. (For the record, Ryan ended up beating Schaub, and if not for Ryan Matthews getting injured, which we now know is the norm for him, but at the time did not, it would have been a perfectly reasonable trade that helped Ben out at RB where he critically needed it.)

2011 on the other hand, was not so quiet. It started out, as some may remember, with a bold suggestion that we scrap the league because, it was not very convincingly argued (IMO), the looming lockout would throw the NFL into such disarray that it would potentially ruin the competitive balance of teams and by extension substantially hinder the value of players on our fantasy teams. (Somewhat ironically, one of the offenses mentioned as being severely disadvantaged by new coaching staff that couldn't get playbooks to players produced one of the studliest players for the fantasy team of the very manager making the worried claims and suggesting halting the league.) Needless to say, thankfully the NFL pulled things together before we made any drastic moves and the year went off without a hitch. Until... I won't even bring it up, but you all know what I'm talking about. Luckily the strength of our FF bond again pulled us through a challenging trial, and aside from a bit of badgering by yours truly of Patty-O's proven to be logically unsound "Pat's Subjective Performance Rankings", we successfully wrapped up our 2nd year of our 3(ish) year league.

Which brings us to tonight. The eve of the start of the 2012 NFL season and the last and final year of the K-Town Keepers Redux league. In past years I have completed (or at least intended to complete) a pre-season "Bold Prediction" for each team in the league giving rankings based on post draft projected point totals, a bit of commentary on my opinions of the team, and finally a prediction as to how the team will do for the season. This year I am going to change up the format very slightly, but with the bulk of the content being the same. I'm listing the teams in order of point totals toward the 3 year championship. The point totals for the starters are based on my pre-draft projections, not Yahoo's projections like usual. The team total points are based on a combination of my projections for the starters, and Yahoo's projections for the bench players, kicker, and defensive players. I'm going to attempt to finish them all tonight, before the bulk of the week 1 games are played, but considering it's already 3:00am by the time I'm finishing this brief (HA!) intro, I may not get to everyone tonight. One last thing, this year, instead of just me doing predictions, I'd like to hear your guys' predictions as well. So if you take the time to read this, post a comment with your prediction for the record of each team and whether they'll make the playoffs or not.

First up- THE LONG SHOTS

12th Place- 5 Total KKR points

Hurricane Ditka
Starters- 1365 pts  Rank- 11th
Defense- 618 pts  Rank- 11th
Team total- 2776 pts  Rank- 11th

Raymond got thrown into a tough situation taking over an already losing team at the start of year 2 of the league. He tried to make the best of it, but unfortunately for him, he's a bears fan and his fandom led him to drafting a bunch of crappy bears players both last year and this year. So not only did Ray start with an uphill battle, he compounded a negative situation by choosing to stick with the loosing ways of his predecessor. I can see Schaub having a nice year, and it's possible that the Cutler/Marshall connection turns this guy back into this guy, but I doubt it. Ray's strenth is WR, but the weakness at RB is a pretty big weakness. I don't see enough on this current roster to give me much hope that my friend will be able to make a significant splash this year.

Brightest spots- Schaub & Cutler could be a nice QB combo, but also could both easily be in the QB15 range. 3 top 20 WRs (by my rankings), but none being top 10. Trent Richardson *could* be a stud and have a big year.

Biggest needs- RB depth. If I were Ray, I would be actively seeking out trades for 2nd tier RBs right now hoping that one of them pops. This, combined with a couple lucky WW pickups is the only chance I see for Raymond having a playoff caliber year.

Dream trade that would help- Package Schaub with WR to a team in need of QB &/or WR help for a lower tier QB (Luck/Dalton/Fitzpatrick) and a RB8-12 (S-Jax/Lynch/Charles).

% likelihood of finishing top 3 overall- 0%
% likelihood of making playoffs this year- 10%
Bold prediction- 3-10 a little better than last year, but still toward the bottom of the barrel

11th Place- 20 Total KKR points
Los Pollos Hermanos (Patrick)
Starters- 1542 pts  Rank- 6th
Defense- 709 pts  Rank- 8th
Total- 3083 pts  Rank- 7th

Patrick is the best positioned of the "Long Shots" group in my opinion. Though his low point total for the 3 year term pretty much has him out of the running for that, his team should be more than solid enough for a run at the playoffs and potentially the pride of a top finish for the league's final season. Aside from not having a top tier QB I don't really see a weak spot on Pat's team. The biggest concern I would have if I were Pat is McFadden's injury history. If DMC goes down and Pat gets stuck with S-Jax as his top RB option and only the current guys to fill in at RB2 there could be some trouble for our fearless leader. Other than that though, I very much expect this team to contend for one of the top spots in the league.

Brightest spots- 3 top 14 WRs, a top 5 RB and a top 11 RB.

Biggest needs- Someone more consistent than Tate, Vereen, or Leon for if (some say it's more like "when") DMC goes down with an injury.

Dream trade that would help- Package one of the WRs with Romo and DMC for a slightly lower ranked but more reliable RB and a top tier QB. Something to the effect of those 3 for Stafford/Newton & Forte/MJD/Lynch.

% likelihood of finishing top 3 overall- 0%
% likelihood of making playoffs this year- 75%
Bold prediction- 8-5 good for a top 4 finish

10th Place- 30 Total KKR points
Pattymakers
Starters- 1444 pts  Rank- 9th
Defense- 734 pts  Rank- 7th
Total- 3042 pts  Rank- 9th

As with all of the "Long Shots" Tim's struggles over the first 2 seasons have left him at a severe disadvantage points-wise in the 3 year scoring, and also player quality-wise in the grand scheme of things. That said, Tim does have some bright spots on this team including 2 top 3 players for their positions in Rice & Gronk. I love Tim's RB depth with McGahee & Stewart on the bench, and 2 of the 3 starting WRs are solid as well (I'm not buyin Manningham until I see him put up some stats with Alex Smith throwing to him instead of Eli). The clear problem area for Tim's team is QB depth. And while I know John H successfully bucked the rule 2 years ago, I think the stats more than back up the fact that you've got to have solid QB play to be successful in this league.

Brightest spots- RBs are excellent (top 3, top 15, & 2 solid backups) & Gronk.

Biggest need- QBs. *Maybe* Flacco will have a decent year, but I certainly wouldn't feel confident with him and Cassell as my only 2 options in a 2 QB league.

Dream trade that would help- I would first try to trade Jackson & Cassel for an 8-12 QB. If no one bit at that, I would not hesitate to trade Gronk for the best QB I could get, and if it came down to it, I would trade Rice for a top tier QB. This team has the depth at RB to support losing Jackson or Rice in exchange for a big upgrade over Cassel at QB.

% likelihood of finishing top 3 overall- 0%
% likelihood of making playoffs this year- 25% (this would be bumped up to 50/50 if Tim was able to work out an equitable trade for a QB upgrade)
Bold prediction- 5-8 missing playoffs

9th/8th Place (Tie)- 45 KKR points
Dirty Dominicans
Starters- 1343 pts  Rank- 12th
Defense- 684 pts  Rank- 10th
Total- 2746 pts  Rank- 12th

Juan has performed admirably given that he was still learning the real game of football when he first came into this "expert" league, let alone fantasy football. He showed great improvement, picking up all 45 of his points last year after he made his way into the playoffs as the 5 seed. And this was in spite of the fact that one of his keepers spent the entire year on the couch. Well, despite the low rankings above, I actually don't hate Juan's chances at making another run at a playoff spot this year. I think his team has some solid potential at the 2 most important spots (QB & RB) and if that potential is fulfilled I think we might see Juan's beautiful face in the playoffs for the 2nd year straight.

Brightest spots- Ryan Mathews (if he gets/stays healthy) and Michael Turner should be a solid RB punch, and Peyton (if he gets/stays healthy and bounces back ok) and Luck should be a decent QB punch.

Biggest need- WR and possibly QB if Peyton doesn't bounce back strong. Jordy could possibly be a top 10 guy again, but I doubt it. And the other 3 WRs on Juan's team I have ranked well outside the top 25. I think and hope Peyton bounces back strong and there aren't any issues, but he is far from a sure thing. He didn't exactly have a monstrous year in 2010 before the 43 neck surgeries, so it will have to be seen how strongly he comes back.

Trade that would help- Turner, Luck, & Crabtree for Brady, Calvin Johnson, & Arian Foster. I think you should give this one some serious thought Johnny.

% likelihood of finishing top 3 overall- 0%
% likelihood of making playoffs this year- 37.5%
Bold prediction- 5-8 missing playoffs

To be cont.

August 26, 2012

Keepers and Draft Order '12

Draft Order '12

1. John Herrin
2. Patrick O'Keefe
3. Timothy O'Keefe
4. Ray Gruhn
5. Benjamin Saunders
6. Kyle Jolly
7. Anthony Barriere, Jr.
8. Jahn Freeborn (sp?)
9. Juan Francisco Fiallo
10. Anthony Barriere, Sr.
11. Jashua Aulozzi
12. David Hamilton

2012 Keepers

Juan Francisco Fiallo
Peyton Manning
Jordy Nelson
Michael Turner
Ryan Mathews
Daryl Smith

John Freeborn
Thomas Brady
Philip Rivers
Arian Foster
Calvin Johnson
Daryl Washington

Anthony Barriere, Jr.
Eli Manning
Adrian Peterson
DeMarco Murray
Ben Roethlisberger
Charles Woodson

Patrick O'Keefe
Antonio Romo
Darren McFadden
Hakeem Nicks
Andre Johnson
James Laurinaitis

John Herrin
Cam Newton
LeSean McCoy
Chris Johnson
A.J. Green
Patrick Willis

Ray Gruhn
Matthew Schaub
Jay Cutler
Steve Smith (CAR)
Mike Wallace
Charles Tillman

Anthony Barriere, Sr.
Ahmad Bradshaw
Victor Cruz
Drew Brees
Larry Fitzgerald
Derrick Johnson

David Hamilton
Matthew Stafford
Jamaal Charles
Wes Welker
Brandon Marshall
Brian Cushing

Josh Aulozzi
Aaron Rodgers
Josh Freeman
Maurice Jones-Drew
Roddy White
Carlos Dansby

Benjamin Saunders
Matt Ryan
Andrew Dalton
Marshawn Lynch
Dez Bryant
Jerod Mayo

Timothy O'Keefe
Ray Rice
Julio Jones
Rob Gronkowski
Joe Flacco
D'Qwell Jackson

Kyle Jolly
Matt Forte
Frank Gore
Michael Vick
Greg Jennings
DeMarcus Ware

August 25, 2012

Pre-draft Trade

Tony (KenoshaMoose) will trade his first round pick to David Hamilton for 2 fourth round picks and Ben Roethlisberger.

My Keepers will be as follows:

Eli Manning
Ben Roethlisberger
Adrian Peterson
DeMarco Murray

Charles Woodson


"May the odds be ever in your favor!"

August 17, 2012

Philip Rivers on the Trade Block

Hey everyone, I am officially putting Philip Rivers on the trade block and looking for draft picks only. No players. Please email me at jfreeborn1@gmail.com or text me at 262-237-8623. Or I guess if you want to you can "bid" on here. John