November 16, 2010

Basic Pointage Analysis



Yes, John Freeborn or Tony Jr. is going to win this league. Yes, John Herrin, you are who we thought you were. :)

20 comments:

  1. Never overlook the '94 Rams! The mediocrity level might surprise yooou!

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  2. Correction. John Freeborn is going to win this league.

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  3. So cocky for having done nothing. Who's team has the star beside it, thus indicating a clinched playoff spot? But hey, that's fine. I've been an underdog all year, and we see where that's gotten me. First.

    Subjective standings are subjective for a reason. That's why they play the game, and that's why I win them.

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  4. Interesting analysis Mr. O'Keefe. One thing to remember though when making your predictions is that success in the past (the only thing this chart measures) is no guarantee of future performance.

    I've got a feeling that one of your "super bowl locks" is going to experience a bit of a drop off in the coming weeks.

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  5. Who Josh? Tony? :)

    John, you sound like you're taking it so seriously and personally! Haha, maybe I'm just reading your comment wrong because I don't know you that well...

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  6. Also - I love looking at stats like this, but in reality it means nothing. Records also mean nothing. Fantasy sports people, key word being fantasy.

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  8. @John F While I lean towards one of any of the top six rankings in the Subjective Performance Rank winning it all, I stand by my prediction that either you or Tony will win it.

    @John H I agree you are the only one to have "done something" at this point, but my analysis is meant to explain why what has happened has actually happened (I think, at least). I'm not disagreeing at all that you have the most wins, and have gained something we all are racing for, the elusive playoff spot. However, my stats are meant to show that while you certainly have been more technically successful, the story behind the numbers matters more in the end (and, I venture to say that this should also matter to you, even in your place of superiority above all us non-playoff bound teams). My analysis is simple, how has the opposition each team has faced affected their W-L record? If we make the PA numbers relevant towards points PF (and it makes sense, a point you score is one that I did not, affecting who wins), the W-L records might align closer to my rankings. So what does that mean to you? Maybe, it would be better to say "thankfully I've had some good matchups, but I am not a sure-fire winner in this thing, I'm in this position at least partly because of the circumstances".

    This is not to downplay you, John, you have one of the best performing teams in the league, and I don't mean to minimize that. However, nothing is sure, and I was rather hoping that the analysis would let teams better gauge their propensity to win at this point. My comment to you was pointed, yes, but it was in jest.

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  9. @Josh couldn't agree more on point one, however, this analysis is only meant to judge past performance, which, at this point, 'aint so bad an indicator of future performance (agreed, though, things happen. Any Given Sunday).

    @Ben couldn't disagree more! the chart matters A LOT imo. Should Tony Sr. feel comfortable at his 2nd place current standing? I wouldn't (I agree though, that means the record means nothing). That's not meant to be offensive, but his record is the biggest abberation on the sheet, clearly showing that matchups have benefitted him far more than hurt. IMO it would be time to take some risks at this point for Mr. Barriere and find a way to put more points on the board. You're right on that, it's all about points. Records at this point are significantly based on luck of matchup, and at this point, those in a position to thrive need to take proactive steps to do so.

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  10. Right, but you can lead every category all year long, then not show up at all in the playoffs. Need proof? I was running away with my Fantasy Baseball team. Stats and record. I didn't even place.

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  11. But Ben, is that any different from non-fantasy football?

    In 08, Arizona had the worst record of all playoff teams, but nearly won the Superbowl.

    In 07, the Giants made the playoffs as a wild card, and knocked off the 18-0 Pats.

    In 05, the Steelers made it in as a wild card, but ended up Superbowl champs.

    The "Any Given Sunday" factor isn't unique to Fantasy football.

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  12. @John H Was your "so cocky for having done nothing" comment a response to me saying I was going to win this league or to Pat saying "you are who we thought we were"?

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  13. "While I lean towards one of any of the top six rankings in the Subjective Performance Rank winning it all..."

    That's quite the bold prediction there buddy. :-)

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  15. We R who We R?

    Ok, maybe I should clear the air on this, and Dave and Ben can back me up on it. I am NOT a cocky person. I guess for me, half of the fun of trash talking, is knowing that you guys know (hopefully) that this is all in jest. Do I feel confident in my team? Absolutely. But I do take jabs at my team personally? Please. I am an insecure bugger, but even I know this doesn't mean anything. In the end, I am just glad to be playing Fantasy Football with some guys I don't know so well, but seem like great guys and with whom I'd love to get to know better.

    Which brings me to another point. We should totally have a football party at some point. I'll try to set something up. I have a tiny home, but at least its warm and has a big tv?

    The other half of the fun, is acting like Rex Ryan. I admit, I hate his approach. Until someone pointed out the old, "Life-Father-Like-Son" addage, and reminded me Buddy Ryan coached the '85 Bears Defense. All of a sudden, I see how much fun it is talk some trash.

    So there you have it, I don't take any of this stuff personally. And I love you guys. Warm fuzzy feeling time is now over.

    @John F - Both of you.

    @Pat - Look at my last three weeks. My star running backs have been on byes, and my star linemen have been on byes. Check the weeks before that and you'll see I was downright dominant. And, no matter how you slice it, I still have beaten every single team 1-10. (I know I play Junkyard Dogs this week, but, come on. It's in the bag.)

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  16. I thought it was "We is who we is".

    @John F- You're horrendously huge.

    @Ben- You're a hippie (and hippies usually smell funny).

    @Pat- You fail at failing. (And before you ask, no that doesn't mean you win.)

    @John H- You will win *th place in this league. (Since you'll have a first round bye, ruling out 5th & 6th place, and it's *th place and not *st, *nd, or *rd place, you should be able to figure which place I'm talking about.)

    @Dave- You succeed at failing, but you do it by accident, so it's still technically a fail not a win. (Also, it is suprising to me that you are so adept at failing unintentionally because you come off as someone who is much more likely to succeed unintentionally.)

    Just thought I would make my own list of @peoples since everyone else was doing it.

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  17. Do you like how each @someone got a little bit longer? It's kind of like I invented a new form of poetic phrasing. Forget about haikus, this is wayyyy better.

    Totally unintentional by the way.

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  18. @Josh You're right, I have a hard time failing/backing down.

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  19. I would really like to respond, but I hate typing unless I have to, and for fantasy football, I don't have to.

    I just wanted to say that Josh - your viewpoint is very similar to mine overall. Not about people in the league, but about the sheer randomness of everything.

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Being in politics is like being a football coach. You have to be smart enough to understand the game, and dumb enough to think it's important.
-Eugene McCarthy