So, I started writing up an intro to this, and then realized that what I had written last year would work just fine. Since I’m a big fan of not doing extra work, I’m just going to reuse my intro from last year. (Also, another way I realized I could do less work was to just reuse my write up for Pat & Johnny since their teams will be just about as crappy this year as they were last year. So, thank you guys for drafting crappy teams (again) and saving me work.)
Just a little explanation of this madness for those of you who have never had the good (or bad if you like to win) fortune of being in a league with me before. Every year at the beginning of the season, and about the midway point, I (try to) do a little write up of my opinion of each team in the league (strengths, weaknesses, etc.) and make predictions for how the league will turn out. They are simply my speculative opinions, based on a little bit of research, a little bit of statistical analysis, and a whole lot of personal bias (especially against Johnny). These predictions are meant in no way to offend anyone, the preseason one's especially will probably all fail miserably, but I like writing them, and at least 1 other person in the league likes reading them. Plus it's a reason to brag at the end of the season if my team totally bombs, but I made a couple of good predictions. So anyway, it's meant for fun, so make fun of them...or me...or Pat, and feel free to comment or discuss my opinions/predictions about your team or anyone Else's. I've included 3 numbers next to each team that mean absolutely nothing, but I like doing dumb statistics stuff like that (maybe I should have been an accountant). They are the point totals based on Yahoo's projections for each team and the rank for the team in that category. The first number is the total number of points projected for the entire team, the second is the total for the team’s starters (I used the highest possible play at each position for the season), and the 3rd is for the team’s defense. So without further ado, here they are. I'm working on them in the reverse order that Yahoo has them listed in the drop down menu.
One more note, if I mention a trade that might help out a certain team, I’m not recommending trades that are actual possibilities for this league, just saying the types of trade and players that in my *mostly worthless* opinion would have the potential to help a team.
Team Hurricane Ditka AKA- The Old Fogy (but still more productive than Michael Crabtree) WRs
GM- Joe
Team total- 3104 pts (3rd) Starters- 1422 (5th) D & Kicker- 927 (6th)
The first thing I notice about Joe’s team (well second really, the first thing I actually noticed was that he’s got the dreaded “Gay Butler”) is that he’s stacked with (about to be) washed up but for the time being still serviceable WRs (and 1 RB). Seriously, he’s got every one of those guys- Ward, Driver, S. Moss, Housh, and even Boldin is pretty much there IMO. They are all for the most part possession guys who will get Joe some consistent points every week, but are pretty unlikely to have any blow up games. Normally this lack of upside @ WR would worry me a bit and I’d like at least one top 12 WR on a team (I’ve got Ward & Boldin at #16 & #17 in my WR ranks), but for Joe’s team, I think it might work out ok. Reason being, he’s got a probable top 5-7 RB and 2 top 10 QBs (unless the Butler completely self destructs, which is certainly possible, but it’s equally possible that he’ll be around the #10 QB like he was last year). Solid week to week performance with decent upside at these 3 positions plus TE along with consistently average WR and defensive production should keep Joe competitive in most contests.
If there is one position of concern I have for Joe’s squad (aside from the aforementioned old dude WRs), it would be his RB2 where his current best option, Beanie Wells, has an apparent knee issue, which is never good for an RB, and a more productive than he gets credit for Tim Hightower still hanging around. Portis is serviceable for now, but I have a hard time having any faith that he’ll make it through the year without significant blocks of little or no production. And his other option is one of Da Raidas backs, and those guys can never be trusted...no matter how much Matt Berry hypes them. Joe’s D is average, but would drop a bit in production (and rank) if Josh Wilson doesn’t end up returning kicks for the Ravens (it doesn’t look like he is going to, at least for the start of the season).
My Bold Prediction- 7-6 Good for a Wild Card slot.
I think Joe’s got enough firepower with Romo, Cutler & Turner and enough balance with the rest of his team to be in a lot of his matchups this year, and come out on top of *slightly* more than half. That said, though they have been consistent in the past, there is a much higher than zero chance that this could be the year a couple of those old fogy WRs take a big dip in production putting Joe in a tight spot. If that happens, it might be worth moving one of the QBs for a slightly lesser (but still playable) option in order to shore up a more solid #1 WR. (Something like Romo & Boldin for Flacco & Roddy White. For example.)
Team Firing Line AKA- If you guys don’t perform, Big T is gonna line you up and shoot you one by one.
GM- Big Tony
Team total- 2900 pts (9th) Starters- 1436 (3rd) D & K- 915 (8th) (The D has since been addressed and is now bumped up to a tie for 1st, which also bumps the team total rank up to 6th)
Despite limited FF experience, last year as co-manager of “Kenosha Moose” Big T was one half of the brain trust that successfully navigated through the season to squeeze into one of the wild card playoff spots. It seems that Mr. B is a quick learner as he (in my opinion) drafted remarkably well, not really reaching unnecessarily for any player early in the draft, and at least through the first 8-10 rounds for the most part drafting the best available players at their respective positions. Team Firing Line has some obvious strong points in Brees, Austin, “the other” Steve Smith, De Williams & VD (the San Fran tight end, just in case there was any confusion). This core of solid players is a great place to start. Not without some slight question marks (i.e. Can Austin live up to last year’s performance? & Can De Williams hold off the hard charging and slightly younger Stewart?), but for the most part a very strong core.
There are two significant areas of concern for this team (there were 3, but Big T has already addressed the issues on his defense and since this printing has moved his defensive rank from 8th up to a tie for 1st). The first being the RB2 spot where Hightower will be a solid fill until Wells is back to 100%, but will probably not be a huge producer once Beanie starts going. Though Jones had a monster year last year, it’s doubtful that he will put up anything close to those numbers playing behind the dynamic Jamal Charles in KC; and B. Jacobs seems to be quickly sliding further into the back seat in NY behind Bradshaw. My guess is that by week 4-6, Big T is going to be wanting for a more consistent producer at the RB2 spot (unless he gets lucky and one of these guys gets a bump back to the driver’s seat because of an injury).
The second question for this squad is the QB2 spot. I know some people have high expectations for McNabb in Washington, and as long as he is healthy, I think he’s likely to put up ok numbers (QB15ish type numbers). BUT (and it’s a huge BUT (not a huge BUTT…sorry Sir-Mix a lot)) that is all hinging on him staying healthy, something he hasn’t had much success doing over the past 5 years. He has missed an average of almost 5 games a year over the past 5 seasons and it isn’t as if he’s gotten younger during that time. McNabb has always been an injury risk, but now another year older, less mobile, and playing behind what last year was considered one of the league’s worst offensive lines (though slightly revamped this year), it seems a near inevitability that he will miss some time at some point this season. In and of itself, that’s not a huge loss for Big T. After all, McNabb’s only projected at around QB15 range. But when you consider that if McNabb falters the choices to fill an RB2 slot and a Flex slot will be 2 of 3 mostly washed up RBs who rank in the 30s for the position, suddenly losing McNabb looks like a very serious hit. And this is the major concern for me for this team.
My Bold Prediction- 5-8 Missing the playoffs by a couple of wins.
As stated above, this team has a very strong core of solid players, but the bench is ranked 12th in our league. That lack of depth is going to be a real issue when bye weeks start coming around and any injury to one of the team’s starters has the potential to doom this team. Given McNabb’s injury history, I see him as the weakest link on this team, and see a very real potential that even a few missed games by him could have a significant detrimental effect on Big T’s season. As tough of a decision as this would be, in my opinion, the best thing this team could do is use the capital of a stud player like Brees to build depth. Having a player like McNabb on the roster is fine (he will have some big games), but only if there are decent options behind him to fill in if (when) he goes down. McNabb paired with a couple of other decent QB options like a Kolb/Flacco/Ryan and a Henne/Stafford/Campbell would be a fine combination and would allow Big T to sure up the RB2 position.
Team Dirty Dominicans AKA- Team We’re not really that dirty, and actually we’re Puerto Ricans
GM- JUAN FRANCISCO GONZALEZ RODRIGO FERDINAN GARCIA FIALLO (pronounced Feeajcho)
Team Total- 3125 (2nd) Starters- 1371 (9th) D & K- 967 (2nd)
I thought about typing this whole prediction in Juan’s accent, but quickly realized that it would be pretty much illegible to anyone but me, so I scratched that idea. But I can’t help it, whenever I read something Juan wrote, or even write things about Juan, my mind automatically goes into Latin mode and I start thinking with an accent (I also get super romantic and suave and have long hair and ride a horse...cause that’s what Latin guys do, right?). Anyways, on to the football (see, I pronounced that futbol in my mind).
For being a first time FF-baller and not having more than a passing knowledge of football in general, I think Juan did just fine on his first draft (as evidenced by his 2nd place team total). He locked up a stud QB and probable top 12 RB & WR in the Frenchy & The Headache (probably reached a little bit on both of them since De Williams & Ryan Matthews were both still on the board when he took PT and Fitz, Calvin Johnson & Jennings were still around when he took Super Migraine Boy). But if the Frenchy’s first game against the Viqueens was any indicator of how the season will go, then Francois will be ok with where he took him. And if Harvin can quit being a sissy about his headaches, he’ll be solid too (especially if he keeps returning kicks).
Two more relatively solid options at WR in Ocho & Nicks and a decent option at RB2 in Jones (assuming he returns kicks...if not his value could be significantly lower), and a couple crappy, but usable QB2s in Sanchez & Hasselbeck (though the odds of Hasselbeck staying healthy all year are about as good as the odds of the Bears winning the Super Bowl). Hasselbeck going down leaving Sanchez as the only QB2 option and not a ton of depth on the bench are my two biggest concerns for Juanito’s team. Cadillac swears that his knees are finally fine and that this is gonna be a bounce back year, but until I see it, I’m not buyng it. Fred Jackson would be a solid option if he was returning kicks like he did last year, but he’s not even on the Bills current special teams depth chart, so it’s not looking to be the case. If he’s purely a breather for CJ Spiller then he’s not going to be of much value in this league. McGahee & Morris are virtually worthless (sorry to be so blunt Juan, but it’s da facts). Chris Chambers could be an ok bye week fill in at WR3, but he’ll be inconsistent at best, and even more so for Mike Thomas. Juan also managed to put together the number 2 defense in the league, which contrary to popular belief, probably won’t win him any championships, but will give consistent points every week which is what I want in a defense.
My Bold Prediction- 6-7 Missing the playoffs by about a game.
I think Juan’s team is solid, but I’m worried that there are going to be weeks where Peyton is his only stud. I think over the course of the year, the Frenchy and Jones will be solid at the RB position, but there will be weeks where they get blanked. And like his 3 point Thursday effort, I don’t think Harvin will be an every week guaranteed producer either (especially if Favre’s iron man streak comes to an end at some point this season...which I think is about as inevitable as David making some controversial trade this year). Overall, I think Juan has solid plays at each position, but not a ton of solid depth, and I think the combination of that and his limited FF experience will make it tough for him to pull in one of the coveted top 6 spots. That said, Juan is a smart guy and FF is a fickle game. If he can stay on top of his game and pull a couple of savvy moves/pickups there is certainly a chance that he could build on his solid base and turn in a playoff caliber year.
Team Junkyard Dogs AKA- Team Minnesota Vikings (not because of the 3 Viqueens players on the team, but because, like the Vikes, Jolly’s season hangs on the shoulders of a soon to be 41 year old grandpa).
GM- Jollybear
Team Total- 2843 (11th) Starters- 1414 (6th) D & K- 736 (11th)
Well, for starters, in my opinion the Jolly Roger takes the cake for the best first 4 picks of any team. He managed a top 5-7 RB, a top 5-7 QB, a top 5-7 WR, and a second RB who, while not a guarantee, certainly has RB1 (top 12) potential. I don’t think there is any team that came out with a more solid first 4 rounds. Behind those 4 studs, Jolly filled in his roster with a good mix decent options. Sims-Walker, Aromashodu & Evans should fill out the other 2 WR spots just fine. RBs are set with Gore & Foster and Harrison is a decent bye week option/backup. Witten is solid at TE and the grandpa gunslinger was the #5 QB last year, so he’s certainly got the potential to be a great QB2. That said, as I mentioned above, I have a strong feeling that this is the year the old man finally hits the wall and they have to put him down. This feeling was only made stronger when I caught a wince from him after a pretty weak hit in Thursday night’s game. Because Mr. Jolly doesn’t have a back-up QB, if something does happen to Favre, he’s stuck either scrambling to pick up Tavaris Crapson, or relying on Harrison for consistent production at the flex spot. Of course there’s always the chance he could strike gold with an Addai or Forte injury and have a starter in either Brown or Taylor, but if not, those guys have limited value. Aside from Favre, the biggest problem area for the Junkyard Dogs is their D-fense. It looks like Jolly is trying to go return-man heavy with the DBs, but with the return points dropped down this year and return depth charts being notoriously untrustworthy, my guess is by week 2-3 Jollybear will be looking for a bit more surefire options for his DBs.
My bold prediction- 8-5 One game worse than last year’s 9-4 effort, but still good enough for a #3 or 4 slot.
Given Jolly’s FF experience and the fact that he’s proven himself a worthy competitor in years past, I think with his solid corps of players, he’ll be able to make the adjustments necessary to overcome what I think are the inevitabilities of a poor defensive start and some lost time from his QB2. The only change I would make to this team, besides some defensive sure-ups, would be to try to pick up a Henne/Sanchez type QB in case (when) Favre does down or at least for bye weeks. Overall, I think it’s a solid squad. (And it takes a lot for me to say that about a bears fan.) See you in the playoffs my friend.
In light of that controversial trade comment, I'm starting the firesale early this year... make your bids. ;)
ReplyDelete"Bold prediction": Flip the numbers because Firing line goes 8 - 5 (or better). I look at my RB2s as all quality. Jacobs is healthy again and playing with a chip on his shoulder. Look for him to reclaim the starting slot with the G-men. Thomas Jones ran for 1400 yards & 14 TDs last year with Shonn Greene playing clean-up. He is listed as the starter ahead of Charles and will be a beast against the weak defenses of the AFC west. Hightower fell to me in the 19th round before Beanies knee became public knowledge. He had over 1000 yards last year including 400+ recieving and my guess is that D.A. will be dumping it off to him routinely. Experience counts and the numbers don't lie. I wouldn't put so much stock in the unproven youngsters (Matthews/Best). See YOU in the Playoffs! Let the games begin!!!!
ReplyDeleteWell, I won't argue with you toooo much Mr. T, after all, in FF, nothing is guaranteed (least of all my goofy predictions). But I'll at least give a quick defense of my opinion. First, on Hightower, I’m with you that he was a fine pickup in the 19th round. But last year he scored 145 pts and was the #30 RB, and in 08 he scored 127 pts and was the #34 RB. To expect a sudden big jump from these numbers when the Cards seem to be committed to a split system at best, but probably more like a 65/35 split with the bigger share going to Beanie, is probably asking a bit much. Second, Mr. Jones- again I’m with you, he was a stud last year. But, the key piece of info to note on TJ is that last year he was running behind arguably the #1 offensive line in the league, whereas this year he will be running behind one of the worst. (http://football.about.com/od/fantasyfootball/a/Offensive_Line.htm) And last but not least (on the scale anyway), Jacobs. While I certainly have my fair share of skepticism towards the “fantasy football experts” of the world, and know that they get it wrong about as often as they get it right, the fact is they do spend a heck of a lot more time around the game and have a lot more insight and inside knowledge than us regular Joes. So when pretty much every analyst out there says “Bradshaw is by far the better runner and it is pretty much inevitable that he will take the majority role in NY”, then I’m gonna go with it. Could they all be wrong? Certainly! They were last year about Thomas Jones. But, like I said above, I’m guessing by about week 4-6 you’ll be looking for an upgrade (especially if my McNabb worries come to fruition).
ReplyDeleteAnd as for the “unproven youngsters”...a couple years ago Chris Johnson & Adrian Peterson were unproven youngsters, now they’re the top 2 running backs. Tomorrow's CJ & AP gotta come from somewhere, might as well be from my bench. :-)