Week Thirteen Stats are Passing Yards and Tackles.
I'm currently optimistic about getting the numbers up soon.
December 3, 2009
November 25, 2009
Week Twelve Stats
Week Twelve categories are Rushing Yards and Tackles.
I hope... nay, I expect to have the stats for week eleven posted sometime tonight.
I hope... nay, I expect to have the stats for week eleven posted sometime tonight.
November 23, 2009
The Tonys are killin it!
They're unstoppable in the stats game.
Also, note the week 9 change for the tackles category. It's not because I like Johnny more than Brian (I don't, and I don't even know Brian so that's saying a lot) it's because I have been under the assumption that shared tackles count this whole time. I went back and double checked the other 2 weeks where tackles were a category, and it didn't change things, but unfortunately for Brian, it did in week 9, and Johnny won the tiebreak.
Also, note the week 9 change for the tackles category. It's not because I like Johnny more than Brian (I don't, and I don't even know Brian so that's saying a lot) it's because I have been under the assumption that shared tackles count this whole time. I went back and double checked the other 2 weeks where tackles were a category, and it didn't change things, but unfortunately for Brian, it did in week 9, and Johnny won the tiebreak.
November 22, 2009
Quick Stats
Week 10: Receiving Yards and Interceptions
Week 11: Rushing Yards and Sacks
As always, I apologize for the delay. I hope to have real live numbers by tomorrow night.
Week 11: Rushing Yards and Sacks
As always, I apologize for the delay. I hope to have real live numbers by tomorrow night.
November 21, 2009
The silence ends. The arguing continues.
League,
I’m writing this message to respond to the recent posts on David’s firesale. Most of you know that I am a Laissez Faire commissioner. I don’t believe a commissioner imposing restrictions on trades or behavior is beneficial or fun for any league, except to enforce those rules that are stated at the beginning of the league. If you asked me any question before the season began, it should’ve been on my approach to trades. Nevertheless, Josh brings up some challenges to my approach to commissioning, and I don’t want to let me them go unanswered. I want to clearly state that I believe both sides have made convincing arguments (Josh and David, basically). This has been a very hard issue for me to mull over. I'm not completely at ease with it, and I don't think anyone else will be. In my opinion though, it is the best solution.
Let me begin by saying this, I will not hold anyone to only subscribing to that approach right now that only benefits their immediate interests. If you want to make an argument for or against a position, I’d hope that you are self-aware and intelligent enough to hold your personal interest aside, and make an argument for what is or isn’t the actual right thing to do.
In the beginning of this season, this was discussed. I admit that this was not posted anywhere, only for the reason that I honestly , honestly did not see it being this big an issue. I apologize for that. However, I do know that a few people asked me about this exact issue, and I was not vague or unclear. I have always, always said that I would allow trades for future picks. I’m sorry that I didn’t write a post about it. In my defense, there are a plethora of issues that could’ve been written. I didn’t have the time to document every nuance of how every rule. In my mind, the bottom line is, if you think a rule is unfair, or question whether or not it should be in a league, it is your responsibility to ask for clarification before the season starts. I can’t conjure up every situation that could possibly ensue before a season starts.
I’ve tried my best though on the issues that seemed important before the season started. I wrote a post, and directed everyone to read it regarding return yards before the draft started. I responded to a valid complaint from a couple individuals regarding two quarterback play. In the end, we voted on it and changed what I personally wanted, according to the collective preference of the league. Ironically, one of the original debaters of that rule admitted to me that he now prefers the original two quarterback system. Go figure.
So now we’re here, arguing about whether or not players can be traded for picks. My answer is yes, teams can trade away players for future draft picks. There will be no restriction against it. There will, however, be a certain method in which it will be conducted.
First of all, all proposed trades must be put on the blog. After that, they will be given a two-day waiting period, where people can post objections, or counter-trades. This will, in effect, balance the trades so that "MJD can't be given for a 10th round pick", a scenario Josh has referred to about 7,654,892 times. This will not only give every team the option of "getting in" on a trade, but will give each team the visibility necessary to comment and counter-offer.
Secondly, every player that is drafted for a pick must be traded for at the very least, four rounds lower than his current projected status for the rest of the season. So let me explain.
Antonio Gates is expected to get 58.40 points for the rest of the season, making him the 63rd best player overall (in terms of projections) for the rest of the year. He is essentially a seventh round pick right now in a normal league. Since this is a keeper league, you have to adjust for the fact that the first round in next year's draft will really be like the fourth round in a normal draft. Therefore, you adjust Gates' value by three rounds, and make him a fourth round pick. But, my adjustment to this will be to add even one more round. You'd have to give a third rounder at least, making Gates' value to a team jockeying for a playoff spot more expensive, and warding off the "dump trade" (possibly).
Also, players for draft picks will be exactly that. If you offer a pick for a player, you get only a player in return. You sacrifice your pick in that round altogether.
It's not a perfect system. Leon Washington has no projected value for the rest of the season. I'm going to be open to adjusting value in situations such as this, and any debate that ensues on the blog. In the end, like I said, it's not perfect, but it's the best I can come up with right now.
I'll speak to the infamous point #1 Josh wrote. My definitions now need to be refined a little to account for these scenarios that never happen in a normal league, but of course could happen in ours with the shrewdness of our members. Trades are allowed only where a deal benefits (of course, it's subjective) a manager's team. Whether that is this year, next year, or whenever, a trade must benefit a team. A team means the players on a person's team, nothing more. Collusion is where a deal is offered that does not benefit a manager's team. In your scenario #1 Josh, the team dumping his players to better the chances of another team beating his best competitor does not actually benefit his team (that's a sentence). It benefits his chances of success, certainly, but not his team. Therefore, I would not allow it.
Lastly, trading has been allowed to continue until November 27.
I don't know if this is everything I wanted to say, but I hope it's at least a good method in someone's eyes. I just want everyone to know that I do regret not clarifying this earlier. I didn't anticipate this kind of debate, but I'm doing my best to manage the situation in a way that is fair, and beneficial.
Peace.
I’m writing this message to respond to the recent posts on David’s firesale. Most of you know that I am a Laissez Faire commissioner. I don’t believe a commissioner imposing restrictions on trades or behavior is beneficial or fun for any league, except to enforce those rules that are stated at the beginning of the league. If you asked me any question before the season began, it should’ve been on my approach to trades. Nevertheless, Josh brings up some challenges to my approach to commissioning, and I don’t want to let me them go unanswered. I want to clearly state that I believe both sides have made convincing arguments (Josh and David, basically). This has been a very hard issue for me to mull over. I'm not completely at ease with it, and I don't think anyone else will be. In my opinion though, it is the best solution.
Let me begin by saying this, I will not hold anyone to only subscribing to that approach right now that only benefits their immediate interests. If you want to make an argument for or against a position, I’d hope that you are self-aware and intelligent enough to hold your personal interest aside, and make an argument for what is or isn’t the actual right thing to do.
In the beginning of this season, this was discussed. I admit that this was not posted anywhere, only for the reason that I honestly , honestly did not see it being this big an issue. I apologize for that. However, I do know that a few people asked me about this exact issue, and I was not vague or unclear. I have always, always said that I would allow trades for future picks. I’m sorry that I didn’t write a post about it. In my defense, there are a plethora of issues that could’ve been written. I didn’t have the time to document every nuance of how every rule. In my mind, the bottom line is, if you think a rule is unfair, or question whether or not it should be in a league, it is your responsibility to ask for clarification before the season starts. I can’t conjure up every situation that could possibly ensue before a season starts.
I’ve tried my best though on the issues that seemed important before the season started. I wrote a post, and directed everyone to read it regarding return yards before the draft started. I responded to a valid complaint from a couple individuals regarding two quarterback play. In the end, we voted on it and changed what I personally wanted, according to the collective preference of the league. Ironically, one of the original debaters of that rule admitted to me that he now prefers the original two quarterback system. Go figure.
So now we’re here, arguing about whether or not players can be traded for picks. My answer is yes, teams can trade away players for future draft picks. There will be no restriction against it. There will, however, be a certain method in which it will be conducted.
First of all, all proposed trades must be put on the blog. After that, they will be given a two-day waiting period, where people can post objections, or counter-trades. This will, in effect, balance the trades so that "MJD can't be given for a 10th round pick", a scenario Josh has referred to about 7,654,892 times. This will not only give every team the option of "getting in" on a trade, but will give each team the visibility necessary to comment and counter-offer.
Secondly, every player that is drafted for a pick must be traded for at the very least, four rounds lower than his current projected status for the rest of the season. So let me explain.
Antonio Gates is expected to get 58.40 points for the rest of the season, making him the 63rd best player overall (in terms of projections) for the rest of the year. He is essentially a seventh round pick right now in a normal league. Since this is a keeper league, you have to adjust for the fact that the first round in next year's draft will really be like the fourth round in a normal draft. Therefore, you adjust Gates' value by three rounds, and make him a fourth round pick. But, my adjustment to this will be to add even one more round. You'd have to give a third rounder at least, making Gates' value to a team jockeying for a playoff spot more expensive, and warding off the "dump trade" (possibly).
Also, players for draft picks will be exactly that. If you offer a pick for a player, you get only a player in return. You sacrifice your pick in that round altogether.
It's not a perfect system. Leon Washington has no projected value for the rest of the season. I'm going to be open to adjusting value in situations such as this, and any debate that ensues on the blog. In the end, like I said, it's not perfect, but it's the best I can come up with right now.
I'll speak to the infamous point #1 Josh wrote. My definitions now need to be refined a little to account for these scenarios that never happen in a normal league, but of course could happen in ours with the shrewdness of our members. Trades are allowed only where a deal benefits (of course, it's subjective) a manager's team. Whether that is this year, next year, or whenever, a trade must benefit a team. A team means the players on a person's team, nothing more. Collusion is where a deal is offered that does not benefit a manager's team. In your scenario #1 Josh, the team dumping his players to better the chances of another team beating his best competitor does not actually benefit his team (that's a sentence). It benefits his chances of success, certainly, but not his team. Therefore, I would not allow it.
Lastly, trading has been allowed to continue until November 27.
I don't know if this is everything I wanted to say, but I hope it's at least a good method in someone's eyes. I just want everyone to know that I do regret not clarifying this earlier. I didn't anticipate this kind of debate, but I'm doing my best to manage the situation in a way that is fair, and beneficial.
Peace.
November 19, 2009
Week 10 and 11 Categories
Can we *PLEASE* know what the stat categories for Week 10 and Week 11 are??? It can't take more than 2 minutes to determine what they are.
My Solution
At the risk of getting called out for only raising objections in the "Great Trade Debate" without offering any real solutions, I thought I'd better give what I think is a perfectly reasonable and viable (and I think much more appealing for everyone in the league) solution to the issue. Here it is.
#1 Tell everyone to keep trying to win until the season is over.
In my opinion this is the only rule needed, but for those of you that don't there's more below. This is supposed to be a competitive league with skilled players. There isn't any reason anyone needs to get a "head start" for next year. There's a perception that the teams at the bottom this year are going into next year at a disadvantage somehow. Why? Everyone is taking 3 players, and last time I checked, everyone has at least 3 quality players on their team. Everyone goes into next year on equal footing. If we want to give a small advantage to the lower ranking teams from this year by giving them early draft position, that's fine, but there is simply no need for anything beyond that.
#2 Have a consolation playoff bracket for teams 7-12 with a reward at the end.
This option would give teams a reason to keep trying in the latter part of the season, even if it is clear they will miss the big dance. Below are a few ways this could be structured.
a. The consolation bracket competes for draft order. Slots 1-6 in next years draft are reserved for the 6 teams that don't make the playoffs, but the order of those 6 slots is decided by the consolation bracket. Whoever wins the consolation bracket gets 1st pick, 2nd place gets 2nd pick, and so on. This way the lower end teams still get the advantage of better draft picks, but there is also a reason to play at the end of the year.
b. We take $150 from the big payout--so the payouts could now be $600 for 1st, $300 for 2nd, and $150 for 3rd (still good money)--and pay the winner of the consolation bracket $50 each year. Again, there is some incentive to play for.
c. Both options a & b. This is what I think is the best option. Not only will this be a sufficient cause to keep playing (draft position), but also something to make the "consolation" bracket a little more exciting.
A final adjustment that I think could be made along with all of the above is to not "snake" the draft order. This will give another (slight) advantage to the teams that were less successful in the previous year by giving them better position throughout the draft instead of just in the first round. Snaking the order is done in redraft leagues because it is the fairest way, but here we're OK with things being a little slanted in the direction of the *cough-losers-cough*.
I think these options sufficiently give a *nudge* to the teams that might need it all the while keeping the league exciting and entertaining for everyone down to the final game, and also keeping the *GASP* "competitive balance" in order.
Let me know what you think. No, scratch that. Let Pat know what you think.
#1 Tell everyone to keep trying to win until the season is over.
In my opinion this is the only rule needed, but for those of you that don't there's more below. This is supposed to be a competitive league with skilled players. There isn't any reason anyone needs to get a "head start" for next year. There's a perception that the teams at the bottom this year are going into next year at a disadvantage somehow. Why? Everyone is taking 3 players, and last time I checked, everyone has at least 3 quality players on their team. Everyone goes into next year on equal footing. If we want to give a small advantage to the lower ranking teams from this year by giving them early draft position, that's fine, but there is simply no need for anything beyond that.
#2 Have a consolation playoff bracket for teams 7-12 with a reward at the end.
This option would give teams a reason to keep trying in the latter part of the season, even if it is clear they will miss the big dance. Below are a few ways this could be structured.
a. The consolation bracket competes for draft order. Slots 1-6 in next years draft are reserved for the 6 teams that don't make the playoffs, but the order of those 6 slots is decided by the consolation bracket. Whoever wins the consolation bracket gets 1st pick, 2nd place gets 2nd pick, and so on. This way the lower end teams still get the advantage of better draft picks, but there is also a reason to play at the end of the year.
b. We take $150 from the big payout--so the payouts could now be $600 for 1st, $300 for 2nd, and $150 for 3rd (still good money)--and pay the winner of the consolation bracket $50 each year. Again, there is some incentive to play for.
c. Both options a & b. This is what I think is the best option. Not only will this be a sufficient cause to keep playing (draft position), but also something to make the "consolation" bracket a little more exciting.
A final adjustment that I think could be made along with all of the above is to not "snake" the draft order. This will give another (slight) advantage to the teams that were less successful in the previous year by giving them better position throughout the draft instead of just in the first round. Snaking the order is done in redraft leagues because it is the fairest way, but here we're OK with things being a little slanted in the direction of the *cough-losers-cough*.
I think these options sufficiently give a *nudge* to the teams that might need it all the while keeping the league exciting and entertaining for everyone down to the final game, and also keeping the *GASP* "competitive balance" in order.
Let me know what you think. No, scratch that. Let Pat know what you think.
November 18, 2009
More Firesale Comments
Ok, so I tried to post this in the comments section, but it must be too big. It'll be easier to read this way anyway.
Here's what I think are a couple of good examples of why I think trades HAVE to be regulated ESPECIALLY in this league. Though I didn't read David's comment until after I wrote this up, I think this is exactlly what is dangerous about allowing the attitude that it's OK to give up on a season (whether it's season 1 or season 3) and decide to give players away for whatever benefit they will give us in the long run. And as I've stated in previous posts, in general I'm for a more hands off approach to league intervention in trades, but I think it's to the detriment of the league not to take all things into consideration, especially the repercussions of a total laissez faire approach to trades. So here's the examples. (And yes, both are how I actually expect things to go, except for one minor detail.)
#1
It's midway through year 3 of the league. Through good luck and solid play I've positioned myself at the top of the leader board for the big payout and I have a significant lead on everyone else, but it's not completely airtight. Because of sacrifices I've made during the first two seasons, my team is at the bottom this year and out of the playoff picture. Jolly has put up consistent performances in the first 2 years, and poses the only real threat to my crown, but can only overtake me by taking first place that final season. So me being the shrewd player that I am realize that my season is done, but by stacking Paul's team up (he's got the second best team that season) I can make it pretty tough for Jolly to win it all. So I trade all my solid players (no need for keepers anymore) to Paul making his team virtually unbeatable and securing my place as the Grand Poobah. Also, one minor side effect is that in the 2nd round of the playoffs Paul plays John who if he were to win that game would finish at least 3rd overall for the big money, but since I stacked Paul's team, John gets smoked and loses not only season 3, but his chance at the big money as well. Did I knowingly make Paul's team better? Sure, but the ultimate goal wasn't to help Paul, it was to help myself. Just like David's goal isn't to help the team getting Steve Slaton or Brandon Marshall on the cheap, it's to help himself for next year. I know this example is a bit extreme, but I think the essence of what is happening is the same. One team is giving up on trying to win this season and making trades without regard to what effect it has on other teams or the competitive balance of the league, simply because it in some small amount helps his team out.
The second example is a little less extreme, but is the same concept.
Again, I'm in the lead in the league, but not going to make the playoffs. I have a big enough lead that I only need 25 more points to be uncatchable. So I look at the stats, and realize that by playing 4 pass catching receivers for the rest of the year I have a great shot at taking the receiving yds bonus. I have 2 decent WRs, so I decide to scrap Rivers and MJD for whoever the best 2 WRs I can get. I try for the top guys, Moss, Fitz, Johnson & Johnson, but their owners are pretty set at RB and can't afford to give up their best WR options, so I'm stuck settling for 2nd tier guys like Jennings, Steve Smith (Panthers), Colston, or Ochocinco. No slouches by any means, but I'm giving up 300 point producers in Rivers & MJD for 160-180 pt producers in the WRs. But what do I care? I don't have to win, I just need to rack up receiving yards. So I trade Rivers for Jennings (bonus I get to root for a Packer), and MJD for Colston. Equal value? No way, but my ultimate goal is winning it all, not winning this year so I'll "take whatever I can get" just like David and whatever other teams are at the bottom this year and next will do.
I think that as unlikely of scenarios as these are, they get to the heart of the problem. As much as it is ultimately all of our goals to win this whole 3 year thing, it's to the detriment of the quality and competitiveness of the league if we let anything go as far as trades are concerned. I understand the appeal of starting to build for next year and "taking whatever value you can get" for the (quality but not quite keeper) players that aren't going help you in the long run. But I think it's bad for the league, and if we let anything go then it opens the door to more egregious offences later on (especially in year 3 when there is a lot more on the line).
I know that got really long, and I don't know if anyone will actually read it all, but that's what I think. And I didn't even get into anything about how David sacrificing his team with have a significant impact on who makes it into the playoffs. So, that's it for now.
Oh yeah, and the little detail is that I won't need to dump any players year 3 because I'll already have the whole think locked up by then. (In which case my argument still applies because I'll be buying up every Packer no matter the cost. MJD for Driver...anyone?)
Here's what I think are a couple of good examples of why I think trades HAVE to be regulated ESPECIALLY in this league. Though I didn't read David's comment until after I wrote this up, I think this is exactlly what is dangerous about allowing the attitude that it's OK to give up on a season (whether it's season 1 or season 3) and decide to give players away for whatever benefit they will give us in the long run. And as I've stated in previous posts, in general I'm for a more hands off approach to league intervention in trades, but I think it's to the detriment of the league not to take all things into consideration, especially the repercussions of a total laissez faire approach to trades. So here's the examples. (And yes, both are how I actually expect things to go, except for one minor detail.)
#1
It's midway through year 3 of the league. Through good luck and solid play I've positioned myself at the top of the leader board for the big payout and I have a significant lead on everyone else, but it's not completely airtight. Because of sacrifices I've made during the first two seasons, my team is at the bottom this year and out of the playoff picture. Jolly has put up consistent performances in the first 2 years, and poses the only real threat to my crown, but can only overtake me by taking first place that final season. So me being the shrewd player that I am realize that my season is done, but by stacking Paul's team up (he's got the second best team that season) I can make it pretty tough for Jolly to win it all. So I trade all my solid players (no need for keepers anymore) to Paul making his team virtually unbeatable and securing my place as the Grand Poobah. Also, one minor side effect is that in the 2nd round of the playoffs Paul plays John who if he were to win that game would finish at least 3rd overall for the big money, but since I stacked Paul's team, John gets smoked and loses not only season 3, but his chance at the big money as well. Did I knowingly make Paul's team better? Sure, but the ultimate goal wasn't to help Paul, it was to help myself. Just like David's goal isn't to help the team getting Steve Slaton or Brandon Marshall on the cheap, it's to help himself for next year. I know this example is a bit extreme, but I think the essence of what is happening is the same. One team is giving up on trying to win this season and making trades without regard to what effect it has on other teams or the competitive balance of the league, simply because it in some small amount helps his team out.
The second example is a little less extreme, but is the same concept.
Again, I'm in the lead in the league, but not going to make the playoffs. I have a big enough lead that I only need 25 more points to be uncatchable. So I look at the stats, and realize that by playing 4 pass catching receivers for the rest of the year I have a great shot at taking the receiving yds bonus. I have 2 decent WRs, so I decide to scrap Rivers and MJD for whoever the best 2 WRs I can get. I try for the top guys, Moss, Fitz, Johnson & Johnson, but their owners are pretty set at RB and can't afford to give up their best WR options, so I'm stuck settling for 2nd tier guys like Jennings, Steve Smith (Panthers), Colston, or Ochocinco. No slouches by any means, but I'm giving up 300 point producers in Rivers & MJD for 160-180 pt producers in the WRs. But what do I care? I don't have to win, I just need to rack up receiving yards. So I trade Rivers for Jennings (bonus I get to root for a Packer), and MJD for Colston. Equal value? No way, but my ultimate goal is winning it all, not winning this year so I'll "take whatever I can get" just like David and whatever other teams are at the bottom this year and next will do.
I think that as unlikely of scenarios as these are, they get to the heart of the problem. As much as it is ultimately all of our goals to win this whole 3 year thing, it's to the detriment of the quality and competitiveness of the league if we let anything go as far as trades are concerned. I understand the appeal of starting to build for next year and "taking whatever value you can get" for the (quality but not quite keeper) players that aren't going help you in the long run. But I think it's bad for the league, and if we let anything go then it opens the door to more egregious offences later on (especially in year 3 when there is a lot more on the line).
I know that got really long, and I don't know if anyone will actually read it all, but that's what I think. And I didn't even get into anything about how David sacrificing his team with have a significant impact on who makes it into the playoffs. So, that's it for now.
Oh yeah, and the little detail is that I won't need to dump any players year 3 because I'll already have the whole think locked up by then. (In which case my argument still applies because I'll be buying up every Packer no matter the cost. MJD for Driver...anyone?)
November 17, 2009
Debating the Firesale
Ok, so from the start when David posted his Firesale post there was something that didn't sit right about it with me. I kind of ignored it and didn't really thing too much about it, and even considered participating. But today I had a couple of minutes to organize my thoughts and get settled what it was that was bothering me. I'll comment more later, but for now I just wanted to post some links for you guys to read and consider and then we can discuss later.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/dump-trades-and-free-markets/
http://www.addictfantasysports.com/perspectives/article/1787
http://www.kffl.com/article.php/106432/236
There are a lot more articles that I found, but I'm not going to post all of them just to prove the point. I know there are articles that argue for the other side as well (one of them is linked in the kffl article above), but someone for "dumping" can post those.
I don't think it is insignificant that most of the duscussion about dumping is centered on fantasy baseball, or that Real Baseball has and continues to implement rules to regulate and limit as much as possible "dump trades". Trades like this are not a part of real football, and yes, I know FF isn't real football, but there's a general attitude in football that you play every game to win. Even when you're 1-14 like the Dolphins were 2 years ago, they were still playing that last game to win. It just seems contrary to the whole idea of fantasy football that a team should be allowed to just give up...even if it is to some benefit for next year.
If this was a 1 year league, and I was in last place, and decided to give up and not set my roster for the last 4 weeks, I think everyone would jump in and ask Pat as the LM to either get me to do it, or to set it for me. They would want this because they wouldn't want 1 teams playoff possibilities to be decided by another team giving up. It's not only about what benefit David is getting for next year, it affects other teams in the league. If David gives up, and hands Wally a W this week, one team is automatically out of the playoffs.
Gotta go, but there'll be plenty of discussion I think (hope).
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/dump-trades-and-free-markets/
http://www.addictfantasysports.com/perspectives/article/1787
http://www.kffl.com/article.php/106432/236
There are a lot more articles that I found, but I'm not going to post all of them just to prove the point. I know there are articles that argue for the other side as well (one of them is linked in the kffl article above), but someone for "dumping" can post those.
I don't think it is insignificant that most of the duscussion about dumping is centered on fantasy baseball, or that Real Baseball has and continues to implement rules to regulate and limit as much as possible "dump trades". Trades like this are not a part of real football, and yes, I know FF isn't real football, but there's a general attitude in football that you play every game to win. Even when you're 1-14 like the Dolphins were 2 years ago, they were still playing that last game to win. It just seems contrary to the whole idea of fantasy football that a team should be allowed to just give up...even if it is to some benefit for next year.
If this was a 1 year league, and I was in last place, and decided to give up and not set my roster for the last 4 weeks, I think everyone would jump in and ask Pat as the LM to either get me to do it, or to set it for me. They would want this because they wouldn't want 1 teams playoff possibilities to be decided by another team giving up. It's not only about what benefit David is getting for next year, it affects other teams in the league. If David gives up, and hands Wally a W this week, one team is automatically out of the playoffs.
Gotta go, but there'll be plenty of discussion I think (hope).
November 15, 2009
FIRESALE
Anything is up for grabs on my team, ANYTHING, with the exception of Steven Jackson and Andre Johnson. I have no chance to make the playoffs considering tie breakers this year. So I'm gonna sell out some of my talented players or players with upside, including Marshall, Slaton, Garrard, Boldin, Lynch or Bradshaw. I'm mainly looking for draft picks for next years draft.
If you're weak somewhere address your weakness and go on to win.
Overall I'll be looking to trade up in picks. IE: Marshall and a 3rd round pick for a 2nd round pick. Things like that. Nothing drastic, I won't be asking for anyones first round pick straight up or anything. I think most things will be reasonable as I have nothing to gain this year and anything that comes by will help me next year.
Send me your offers by Wednesday so I can evaluate who has made the best offer for my team and give others a chance to counter offer.
The deadline is the 20th, so lets get moving. This is a real chance to improve your team at a low cost.
Thanks, and I look forward to hearing from you guys, don't let someone else take the league from you.
David Hamilton
If you're weak somewhere address your weakness and go on to win.
Overall I'll be looking to trade up in picks. IE: Marshall and a 3rd round pick for a 2nd round pick. Things like that. Nothing drastic, I won't be asking for anyones first round pick straight up or anything. I think most things will be reasonable as I have nothing to gain this year and anything that comes by will help me next year.
Send me your offers by Wednesday so I can evaluate who has made the best offer for my team and give others a chance to counter offer.
The deadline is the 20th, so lets get moving. This is a real chance to improve your team at a low cost.
Thanks, and I look forward to hearing from you guys, don't let someone else take the league from you.
David Hamilton
Week 10 Bonus Stats
So... What are the bonus stat categories for this week that we're already halfway through?
November 14, 2009
Dispelling the Myth with Actual Data
This is for all you hater's (sub bears/vikings/cowboys, etc. fans) out there who like to make cracks about how the Pack screwed up by letting Favre go because "look how awesome he's doing with the Vikings," and "maybe if you still had Favre you guys would be 7-1 instead of Minnesota," and other stupid crap like that. Well, I know it's fun to take shots at your rivals (how's that new guy working out for you bears fans? ouch!!!), but it's also fun to prove the crackers (that is the guys who make cracks, not the racial slur for white people) wrong with actual logical argument and statistical data. So here's some info for you haters...
So, no doubt Favre is having a good year. He's more than proven that he can still play. To which I say...Good for him. But the thing that people don't seem to consider in the Favre vs. Rodgers debate is the fact that A) Favre has one of the best O-lines in the league compared to the Packer's quite obviously not one of the best O-lines in the league. And B) Favre has the #1 RB in the league compared to Rodgers who has an underperforming former back-up Giants RB. Dispite these-what I would consider rather significant-disadvantages, if you look at actual QB play and not *team* record or play, it's pretty clear the Pack made the right move. Here's the stats year-to-date, and also keep in mind that football players over the age of 80 tend to have a bit of a drop off in the second half of the season.
The 2 categories that Favre is actually leading in (not by much) are-
QB rating- Favre- 106 Rodgers- 103.3 (negligible difference)
INTs- Favre- 3 Rodgers- 5 (somewhat understandable considering the fact that Favre routinely has...all day to throw while Rodgers has appx. .03 seconds)
They tie in TDs with 16.
And, advantage Rodgers in-
Yds- Rodgers- 2255 Favre- 1925
Yds/Att- Rodgers- 8.67 Favre- 7.52 (in case you were tempted to say "he gets more attempts so of course he has more yards")
Yds/Gm- Rodgers- 282 Favre- 241
20+ yd comp- Rodgers- 30 Favre- 22 (with 5 being screens to AP or CT)
40+ yd comp- Rodgers- 10 Favre- 6 (with 2 being screens)
And the most key stat of all...
Sacks- Rodgers- 37 Favre- 18
Yes that's more than twice as many sacks. I know I know, "but all the talking heads say that it's Rodger's fault he gets sacked so much". Well, guess what, talking heads like statistical and logical analysis about as much as bears, vikings, and cowgirls fans do. Check the stats here (http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/6016/air-and-space-timing-rodgers-on-sacks). On only 9 of the 37 sacks did Rodgers hold the ball longer than 4 seconds (the generally accepted pocket time for a QB in a West-Coast offense), and only 3 times did he hold the ball longer than 4.7 seconds. So no, most of the sacks aren't Rodgers fault. Most of them are the crappy O-line's fault. And the reality is that if Brett was playing behind that same crappy O-line and with the same crappy run game, he would have much worse stats than Rodgers does, and would almost certainly have already re-re-re-retired (how many are we up to now?).
So quit hatin, and accept the fact that the Pack made the right move at the right time, and despite having other issues to sort out (O-line, rush game, Kampman covering Percy Harvin, etc.) they're set for a while at QB. (The bears on the other hand...not so sure.)
So, no doubt Favre is having a good year. He's more than proven that he can still play. To which I say...Good for him. But the thing that people don't seem to consider in the Favre vs. Rodgers debate is the fact that A) Favre has one of the best O-lines in the league compared to the Packer's quite obviously not one of the best O-lines in the league. And B) Favre has the #1 RB in the league compared to Rodgers who has an underperforming former back-up Giants RB. Dispite these-what I would consider rather significant-disadvantages, if you look at actual QB play and not *team* record or play, it's pretty clear the Pack made the right move. Here's the stats year-to-date, and also keep in mind that football players over the age of 80 tend to have a bit of a drop off in the second half of the season.
The 2 categories that Favre is actually leading in (not by much) are-
QB rating- Favre- 106 Rodgers- 103.3 (negligible difference)
INTs- Favre- 3 Rodgers- 5 (somewhat understandable considering the fact that Favre routinely has...all day to throw while Rodgers has appx. .03 seconds)
They tie in TDs with 16.
And, advantage Rodgers in-
Yds- Rodgers- 2255 Favre- 1925
Yds/Att- Rodgers- 8.67 Favre- 7.52 (in case you were tempted to say "he gets more attempts so of course he has more yards")
Yds/Gm- Rodgers- 282 Favre- 241
20+ yd comp- Rodgers- 30 Favre- 22 (with 5 being screens to AP or CT)
40+ yd comp- Rodgers- 10 Favre- 6 (with 2 being screens)
And the most key stat of all...
Sacks- Rodgers- 37 Favre- 18
Yes that's more than twice as many sacks. I know I know, "but all the talking heads say that it's Rodger's fault he gets sacked so much". Well, guess what, talking heads like statistical and logical analysis about as much as bears, vikings, and cowgirls fans do. Check the stats here (http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/6016/air-and-space-timing-rodgers-on-sacks). On only 9 of the 37 sacks did Rodgers hold the ball longer than 4 seconds (the generally accepted pocket time for a QB in a West-Coast offense), and only 3 times did he hold the ball longer than 4.7 seconds. So no, most of the sacks aren't Rodgers fault. Most of them are the crappy O-line's fault. And the reality is that if Brett was playing behind that same crappy O-line and with the same crappy run game, he would have much worse stats than Rodgers does, and would almost certainly have already re-re-re-retired (how many are we up to now?).
So quit hatin, and accept the fact that the Pack made the right move at the right time, and despite having other issues to sort out (O-line, rush game, Kampman covering Percy Harvin, etc.) they're set for a while at QB. (The bears on the other hand...not so sure.)
November 12, 2009
Any of you bubble teams need a stud WR?
I'm putting Cribbs on the block. Not because I don't love his 18 points a week average. But because stupid Portis had to get a concussion, and now I need another solid RB. If you're interested, throw me an offer. But just be realistic. Cribbs is the #2 WR, and the #6 overall player that's not a QB. Annnnd, he's proven. Two years ago he was the #2 WR only behind Moss who had his insane year, and last year he was the #6 WR.
So anyway, if a stud WR would give you a nice boost, and you're deep enough at RB to give up someone decent and not take too big a hit, shoot an offer my way and we'll see what we can work out.
So anyway, if a stud WR would give you a nice boost, and you're deep enough at RB to give up someone decent and not take too big a hit, shoot an offer my way and we'll see what we can work out.
November 10, 2009
The Trade Deadline
After Friday, November 20th there will be no more trades for the rest of the season; so lets get some deals done!
I am looking for a solid #2 RB in exchange for Quarterbacks Matthew Stafford or Vince Young (who have both been solid) or Wide Receivers Steve Smith (NYG) or Jeremy Maclin. Some combination of those players is also a possibility. If you're interested send me an offer or email/text me to talk about it.
I am looking for a solid #2 RB in exchange for Quarterbacks Matthew Stafford or Vince Young (who have both been solid) or Wide Receivers Steve Smith (NYG) or Jeremy Maclin. Some combination of those players is also a possibility. If you're interested send me an offer or email/text me to talk about it.
November 5, 2009
October 28, 2009
Old and New and Future Stats
Stats for past three weeks
Week Five (no interceptions!)
Week Six
Week Seven
Categories for Week Eight will be Passing Yards and Tackles.
Week Five (no interceptions!)
Week Six
Week Seven
Categories for Week Eight will be Passing Yards and Tackles.
October 27, 2009
On The Block
Yo, so I don't know if anyone would be interested, but I'm looking for an upgrade at my QB2 spot over J. Campbell. I rate Campbell as a 15-20 QB leaning towards 15, so I'm really looking for a top 10 guy if it's gonna be worth me really giving up anyone major.
The only player that I would say is off limits is Rivers. (It would be pretty pointless to upgrade one just to downgrade the other.)
I'll also say that while I'm technically willing to trade MJD, I think his value is #2 overall just behind AP. So it would pretty much take an absolute knock my socks off (not really possible, Mythbusters tested it) offer.
Other than that, anyone is available. Let me know if you have any interest.
The only player that I would say is off limits is Rivers. (It would be pretty pointless to upgrade one just to downgrade the other.)
I'll also say that while I'm technically willing to trade MJD, I think his value is #2 overall just behind AP. So it would pretty much take an absolute knock my socks off (not really possible, Mythbusters tested it) offer.
Other than that, anyone is available. Let me know if you have any interest.
October 26, 2009
Week 7 Stats
Wow...
It looks like Kyle is going to win with 282 receiving yards. But Wally has 279 and I have 277.
Tough loss...
Don't ignore David's post about Leon Washington now just because this one is above it.
It looks like Kyle is going to win with 282 receiving yards. But Wally has 279 and I have 277.
Tough loss...
Don't ignore David's post about Leon Washington now just because this one is above it.
Leon Washington
So as many of you probably know, Leon Washington broke his leg. This is devastating to my team.
However, since this is a keeper league, and he is 'keeper' type player, he retains good value(obviously not as good as it was when he was healthy). I'm interested in fielding offers for him to anyone who feels they can make an offer for a quality player and/or draft picks for the upcoming season. So... who's interested in improving NEXT years team?!
I look forward to hearing from all you guys that may be interested. Otherwise I'll be happy to stick him on IR and keep him for the next year.
Thanks,
David Hamilton
However, since this is a keeper league, and he is 'keeper' type player, he retains good value(obviously not as good as it was when he was healthy). I'm interested in fielding offers for him to anyone who feels they can make an offer for a quality player and/or draft picks for the upcoming season. So... who's interested in improving NEXT years team?!
I look forward to hearing from all you guys that may be interested. Otherwise I'll be happy to stick him on IR and keep him for the next year.
Thanks,
David Hamilton
October 21, 2009
October 20, 2009
Stats for Week Seven
The stats for week 7 will be Receiving yards and Sacks. For Josh's sake, I've gone ahead and picked the categories for the rest of the year. There is a slight advantage to one category for this year, but over the three year span this will/should even out.
I apologize that rushing yards have seemed to be ignored up to this point. To be fair Josh, this is week 7 in the first year of a three year league. There will be apparent "lopsidedness" at first, which is why you are upset. However, at any point in the three year span, as long as the categories are chosen randomly, there should be apparent "lopsidedness".
If you flip a coin 100 times, do you complain if the first 5 times are heads? No, because you know that over the course of the entire time, you are bound to get more even.
I hope everyone understands that every rule put into place has a purpose in this league, and this one is to award well balanced teams. If you are going after the 25pts for Receiving Yards, you are compromising your chances of gaining the 5 weekly points for Rushing and Passing Yards categories. That's the purpose of this. There will be some players that dominate categories. They will miss out when their chosen categories aren't picked. They will have an advantage when they are. A well balanced team can benefit every week by being competitive in each category, but not necessarily dominating any of them.
The actual numbers for past week and this week should be up soon. Should be. Soon.
I apologize that rushing yards have seemed to be ignored up to this point. To be fair Josh, this is week 7 in the first year of a three year league. There will be apparent "lopsidedness" at first, which is why you are upset. However, at any point in the three year span, as long as the categories are chosen randomly, there should be apparent "lopsidedness".
If you flip a coin 100 times, do you complain if the first 5 times are heads? No, because you know that over the course of the entire time, you are bound to get more even.
I hope everyone understands that every rule put into place has a purpose in this league, and this one is to award well balanced teams. If you are going after the 25pts for Receiving Yards, you are compromising your chances of gaining the 5 weekly points for Rushing and Passing Yards categories. That's the purpose of this. There will be some players that dominate categories. They will miss out when their chosen categories aren't picked. They will have an advantage when they are. A well balanced team can benefit every week by being competitive in each category, but not necessarily dominating any of them.
The actual numbers for past week and this week should be up soon. Should be. Soon.
October 16, 2009
This week's Stats.
This week's stats are Passing Yards and Interceptions. Complaints? Ask Tony Barriere.
I understand that there's been some unexpected continuity with Interceptions. Over the three years of play, the categories should be much more evenly dispersed. And yes, it makes sense to look at this over the three-year term vs. the one year term. If you have more complaints, I suggest you look at a Statistics book and consult the Normal Distribution.
Last week's stats will be up by 1pm today.
I understand that there's been some unexpected continuity with Interceptions. Over the three years of play, the categories should be much more evenly dispersed. And yes, it makes sense to look at this over the three-year term vs. the one year term. If you have more complaints, I suggest you look at a Statistics book and consult the Normal Distribution.
Last week's stats will be up by 1pm today.
October 14, 2009
This week was all about Pauly
He whoops up on Pat's Dad (his official title), and in the process nabs the honors for both of this weeks categories. Nicely done.
October 10, 2009
Good stuff from Page Deux
This blog needs to lighten up and this made me laugh. (A lot more than Pat's stupid fake accidents.) (I laughed a little at the first one.)
Click here!
(Sorry, Pat's stupid blog won't let me post it as a link, so you'll have to copy & paste.)
Click here!
(Sorry, Pat's stupid blog won't let me post it as a link, so you'll have to copy & paste.)
October 8, 2009
Tony Romo
I want to trade Tony Romo and another player for a different QB. I'm also open to a trade for another QB that doesn't involve Romo. Make me an offer!
October 7, 2009
Should a league be a democracy?
So David's comment about "[Pat making the decision...and that's all that matters]" got me to thinking about this. Here's my stance, and I'd like to here what others think(though I'll probably only get John, David and Pat's since it seems we're the only ones ever on here).
I don't think a league should be a democracy. But I do think that a league should be lead by a benevolent dictator. I think that it's too much of a pain to have everyone voting on everything in a fantasy league (votes for every scoring option, votes for every trade, votes for every rule, etc.), but I do think that everything should be up for discussion. And I think that if it is clear from a discussion (or a vote if necessary) that most of the league is against something then the league manager should take that into consideration, and more often than not I think the LM should change whatever it is the majority wants changed (within reason and within the right timing). A fantasy football league is made up of 10 or in this case 12 guys looking to have a good competitive time for the football season, and if there is something that the majority of those guys don't like then it should (more often than not) be changed. A FF league isn't about the commissioner, it's about the league, and the league is the guys that make it up.
This latest gripe about the waivers is the perfect example. Now it seems that most of the league likes the way the waivers are set up, so I think that they should stay the way they are (even though I don't prefer it this way).
But lets say for arguments sake that 11/12 league members don't like the rule. The only guy that likes it is the one guy that happens to work Sundays. So the league manager, not even liking the rule himself, decides to make a long waiver period. The rest of the league complains and it is clear that only the 1 guy wants it this way. With my idea of the "benevolent dictator LM" I think the league manager has two options here and both give the priority to what the league wants. The first is to tell the guy that works Sunday that maybe this isn't the league for him (this is I think the worse option). The second is to say to the league "Hey guys, so this guy really wants to be in the league, but he works Sundays and doesn't want to be at a severe disadvantage by not ever being able to get good spur of the moment FA pickups. What about having a very short waiver period just to give Joe the same opportunity everyone else has." (This, I think, is the better option)
I just think that with a competative active league where all the players care about the league and how things work, it's better to find out what everyone wants rather than have 1 guy choose.
But, if 7/12 of you disagree then I have to (by my own ideology) defer to the masses.
I don't think a league should be a democracy. But I do think that a league should be lead by a benevolent dictator. I think that it's too much of a pain to have everyone voting on everything in a fantasy league (votes for every scoring option, votes for every trade, votes for every rule, etc.), but I do think that everything should be up for discussion. And I think that if it is clear from a discussion (or a vote if necessary) that most of the league is against something then the league manager should take that into consideration, and more often than not I think the LM should change whatever it is the majority wants changed (within reason and within the right timing). A fantasy football league is made up of 10 or in this case 12 guys looking to have a good competitive time for the football season, and if there is something that the majority of those guys don't like then it should (more often than not) be changed. A FF league isn't about the commissioner, it's about the league, and the league is the guys that make it up.
This latest gripe about the waivers is the perfect example. Now it seems that most of the league likes the way the waivers are set up, so I think that they should stay the way they are (even though I don't prefer it this way).
But lets say for arguments sake that 11/12 league members don't like the rule. The only guy that likes it is the one guy that happens to work Sundays. So the league manager, not even liking the rule himself, decides to make a long waiver period. The rest of the league complains and it is clear that only the 1 guy wants it this way. With my idea of the "benevolent dictator LM" I think the league manager has two options here and both give the priority to what the league wants. The first is to tell the guy that works Sunday that maybe this isn't the league for him (this is I think the worse option). The second is to say to the league "Hey guys, so this guy really wants to be in the league, but he works Sundays and doesn't want to be at a severe disadvantage by not ever being able to get good spur of the moment FA pickups. What about having a very short waiver period just to give Joe the same opportunity everyone else has." (This, I think, is the better option)
I just think that with a competative active league where all the players care about the league and how things work, it's better to find out what everyone wants rather than have 1 guy choose.
But, if 7/12 of you disagree then I have to (by my own ideology) defer to the masses.
Seriously... The Waivers Settings
The current waiver setup is getting ridiculous. Is there anyone in this league that wants the waivers setup this way other than Pat? Is there any other league in existence that is setup this way? The only players that should go to waivers are the players that are dropped by someone.
A HUGE part of FF is being the first to pickup a guy when he becomes relevant and the 3-day waiver rule is completely removing that aspect.
Also, was anyone aware that the waivers were setup this way before Week 1 was over and we saw all the players on waivers?
Pat, please AT LEAST consider changing it and/or finding out how the rest of the league feels.
Also, anyone in the league who reads this, please express your opinion.
A HUGE part of FF is being the first to pickup a guy when he becomes relevant and the 3-day waiver rule is completely removing that aspect.
Also, was anyone aware that the waivers were setup this way before Week 1 was over and we saw all the players on waivers?
Pat, please AT LEAST consider changing it and/or finding out how the rest of the league feels.
Also, anyone in the league who reads this, please express your opinion.
October 6, 2009
Week 4 Stats and more!
Thanks Josh for showing me a better way to display this!
Week Five stats will be Passing Yards and Sacks. If you have a problem, ask Tony Barriere, he picked 'em this week!
October 3, 2009
Week Three Stats and Week Three Winners
So the winners for Week Three are Miguel with Receiving Yards and Tonies with Interceptions.
Am I the only one that has noticed those have been the stats for three weeks? I am surprised people aren't compaining about it.
Good luck and God speed.
Why a top WR isn't worth a top RB
Ok, so I have to preface this argument with the fact that sometimes for some teams, it may be worth it to overpay for a top WR by giving up a top RB. However, my argument is that in general, as far as the actual value of the top players at each position is concerned, the worth of RBs (and QBs for that matter) is far superior to that of WRs. This is especially pertinent this year because there was so much talk from the analysts about how RB was so deep and WR was so shallow. While it may be true that RBBC (running back by committee) has spread the production out at the RB position resulting in greater supply of productive backs, and it also may be true that there are fewer "elite" WRs in the game now than there have been in past years. Neither of these facts (if they are facts after all) changes the statistical reality that I am about to present. And that reality is that WR is a much less productive position than RB in fantasy football, and because of this RBs should be valued higher in drafts and in trades.
For starters, lets just look at the average production for the two positions. Below I've posted some stats for the two positions. What these stats show very clearly is that the RB position is much more productive than the WR position. The numbers are the averages over the past 2 years for each ranking bracket for each position.
Average production for the top 5 RB- 275pts
Average production for the top 5 WR- 235pts Difference -40pts
(Keep in mind this includes the Brady/Moss crazy 2007 record year that will never be repeated.)
Average production for the 5-10 RB- 235pts
Average production for the 5-10 WR- 204pts Difference -31pts
Average production for the 10-15 RB- 203pts
Average production for the 10-15 WR- 185pts Difference -18pts
Average production for the 15-20 RB- 188pts
Average production for the 15-20 WR- 168pts Difference -20pts
Average production for the 20-25 RB- 163pts
Average production for the 20-25 WR- 155pts Difference -8pts
Ok, so a couple of things that we can see clearly here.
1) Running backs score a heck of a lot more points than WRs. Last year there was a total of...count em...1 WR in the top 25. Johnny Lee Higgens was the #23 overall ranked player. There were only 10 in the top 50.
2) This isn't only the case for the top guys, the trend continues throughout the ranks. Last year the #15 RB outscored the #15 WR by 46 points. The #20 RB outscored the #20 WR by 22 points.
3) If you listened to the talking heads at all this preseason you heard all about how "you'd better grab up one of the top WRs cause the production really drops off after the top 8 or 9 guys." Well sorry Matthew Berry, but the stats say the opposite. At all but one ranking position the drop off is greater for RBs than it is for WRs.
Top 5 to 5-10 drop off- RBs- 40 WRs- 21
5-10 to 10-15 drop off- RBs- 32 WRs- 19
10-15 to 15-20 drop off- RBs- 15 WRs-17
15-20 to 20-25 drop off- RBs- 25 WRs-13
So what does all this mean? I think it shows pretty clearly that there is no way around the fact that the top 25 RBs are much more valuable than the top 25 WRs. And a reasonable conclusion from this is that a strong RB corps is much more valuable to a FF team than a strong WR corps.
And before you ask, no it doesn't matter that we start 3 WRs and only 2 RBs. The drop off for WR ranks 26-36 is a measly 18 more points.
So, I'm sure only a couple of you are nerdy enough to take the time to read this and actually think about it, but let me know what you think, especially if you disagree. (It's kind of hard to disagree with cold hard facts though.)
For starters, lets just look at the average production for the two positions. Below I've posted some stats for the two positions. What these stats show very clearly is that the RB position is much more productive than the WR position. The numbers are the averages over the past 2 years for each ranking bracket for each position.
Average production for the top 5 RB- 275pts
Average production for the top 5 WR- 235pts Difference -40pts
(Keep in mind this includes the Brady/Moss crazy 2007 record year that will never be repeated.)
Average production for the 5-10 RB- 235pts
Average production for the 5-10 WR- 204pts Difference -31pts
Average production for the 10-15 RB- 203pts
Average production for the 10-15 WR- 185pts Difference -18pts
Average production for the 15-20 RB- 188pts
Average production for the 15-20 WR- 168pts Difference -20pts
Average production for the 20-25 RB- 163pts
Average production for the 20-25 WR- 155pts Difference -8pts
Ok, so a couple of things that we can see clearly here.
1) Running backs score a heck of a lot more points than WRs. Last year there was a total of...count em...1 WR in the top 25. Johnny Lee Higgens was the #23 overall ranked player. There were only 10 in the top 50.
2) This isn't only the case for the top guys, the trend continues throughout the ranks. Last year the #15 RB outscored the #15 WR by 46 points. The #20 RB outscored the #20 WR by 22 points.
3) If you listened to the talking heads at all this preseason you heard all about how "you'd better grab up one of the top WRs cause the production really drops off after the top 8 or 9 guys." Well sorry Matthew Berry, but the stats say the opposite. At all but one ranking position the drop off is greater for RBs than it is for WRs.
Top 5 to 5-10 drop off- RBs- 40 WRs- 21
5-10 to 10-15 drop off- RBs- 32 WRs- 19
10-15 to 15-20 drop off- RBs- 15 WRs-17
15-20 to 20-25 drop off- RBs- 25 WRs-13
So what does all this mean? I think it shows pretty clearly that there is no way around the fact that the top 25 RBs are much more valuable than the top 25 WRs. And a reasonable conclusion from this is that a strong RB corps is much more valuable to a FF team than a strong WR corps.
And before you ask, no it doesn't matter that we start 3 WRs and only 2 RBs. The drop off for WR ranks 26-36 is a measly 18 more points.
So, I'm sure only a couple of you are nerdy enough to take the time to read this and actually think about it, but let me know what you think, especially if you disagree. (It's kind of hard to disagree with cold hard facts though.)
October 2, 2009
Week 3 Stats and Week 4 Cats
Week 4 categories will be Receiving Yards and Interceptions.
Week three stats should be up shortly.
Week three stats should be up shortly.
Week 2 Stats
Okay. I'm staying late at work to finish these, so be grateful you have such a dedicated commish.
No but really, I apologize for this being so late. I will have the week three up shortly, along with the stats for this week, and the winners from weeks two and three. Geesh, I'm behind!
No but really, I apologize for this being so late. I will have the week three up shortly, along with the stats for this week, and the winners from weeks two and three. Geesh, I'm behind!
October 1, 2009
Trade Offers
When someone offers you a trade please respond to it within a reasonable time frame or at least let the person who offered it know if and why you're waiting to respond. I feel it's a simple courtesy. When you offer a trade and it sits there for days and you don't get a response it can be quite frustrating and make it seem like the other person hasn't even noticed that they've received an offer.
Thanks!!!
Thanks!!!
September 28, 2009
September 25, 2009
This week's stats.
This week's stats will be Interceptions and Receiving Yards. Sorry for the delay, my wife had a baby, things have been very hectic. I'll have an updated graph on the blog by the end of the weekend.
September 21, 2009
Bold Predictions???
Hey Josh,
When are we going to get the other half of the bold predictions? It seems a bit late now...
When are we going to get the other half of the bold predictions? It seems a bit late now...
September 19, 2009
Sproles
Pat, are you nervous that Sproles will have his return duties taken away if LT misses a lot of time?
September 15, 2009
Performance Update - Week One Post-MNF
The winners for week one performance were Tim/Tackles and Pat/Receiving. Nice start for the O'Keefe's!
The category awards for Week Two will be Passing Yards and Interceptions. Let me know if you have any questions.
September 14, 2009
Performance Standings - Week 1, Pre MNF
Well, I know that some of you would like to see this even without tonight's games included... so here are the current standings for the performance points.
The bold column will represent the season total for each category. I'll try to make this bigger in the future.
Also, the tiebreakers for the defensive categories will be as follows:
Sacks - Tackles, then interceptions.
Tackles - combined interceptions and sacks.
Interceptions - Tackles, then sacks.
There will be no tiebreakers after this. If it occurs where two teams are still tied for the category after all tiebreakers, then the 5 pts will be divided between the players. Yes, that will happen if there is a three way tie, too, and 0.01pts will be left unawarded. The same thing will happen for offensive categories, too, upon a tie. This tiebreaking procedure is in my opinion, the best way to settle the issue without affecting peoples' draft strategy. I hope you agree!
I'll post the official Week 1 stats after tonight's games. Go Brady.
P.S. The performance categories awarded this week are Tackles and Receiving Yards. I'll post next week's categories after tonight's game as well. From now on, the categories for the next week will be posted along with the current categories so people may plan accordingly (if they so choose). My bad this week, I didn't think about it.
September 12, 2009
My Bold Predictions 2009 Preseason Edition
Just a little explanation of this madness for those of you who have never been in a league with me before. Every year at the beginning of the season, and about the midway point, I do a little write up of my opinion of each team in the league (strengths, weaknesses, etc.) and make predictions for how the league will turn out. They are simply my speculative opinions, based on a little bit of research, a little bit of statistical analysis, and a whole lot of personal bias. These predictions are meant in no way to offend anyone, the preseason one's especially will probably all fail miserably, but I like writing them, and at least 1 other person in the league likes reading them. Plus it's a reason to brag at the end of the season if my team totally bombs, but I made a couple of good predictions. So anyway, it's meant for fun, make fun of them or me...or Pat, and feel free to comment or discuss my opinions/predictions about your team. I've included 2 numbers next to each team that mean absolutely nothing, but I like doing dumb stuff like that (maybe I should have been an accountant), but anyway, they are the point totals based on Yahoo's projections for each team. The first number is the total number of points projected for a teams starters (I used the highest possible play at each position for the season), and the second is the total for the entire team. So without further ado, here they are (in order the way the teams come up on the Yahoo box).
Team Wheaties AKA-The Return Men
GM-John Herrin
Starters-2193 (3) Team-2857 (4)
At first glance John's team looks like a bunch of 2nd string scrubs and young punk kids (aside from studs Brees & CJ (the one and only CJ now that the other CJ is CO)), however, a quick look at the projections (or the league rules) reveals that John's team is actually pretty stacked full of studs. He's got the best FF QB in the game (sorry Pat, but Brady's gotta prove he can repeat '07, Brees does it every year), and his WR corp is anchored not by CJ (who will be a top 5 WR in every other league in the world), but by Steve Breaston who projects a full 60 pts higher than Johnson. Add in D-Jax (the new one, not the washed up one who used to play for SanFran), and he's stacked at the position. At RB, he's got one of the best for this league in J. Norwood (who I drafted a few years ago in a regular league thinking he would take over for Warrick Dunn when his legs finally break off...didn't happen), but after that it's pretty thin. I know there's some guys out there that are drinking the Ced Benson cool-aid this year...but....the only thing I could think to write is something pretty morbid about Jim Jones (the People's Temple one, not the recently deceased great D-coordinator for the Iggles), so never mind. Team Wheaties could also get some decent production out of IDPs from return yards.
This team has the potential to put up big points on any given week, but I want to see the league in action before I'm ready to basically trust an entire team to return guys. It seems to me that there is lot of potential for disappointment with this team, but if it turns out the way John hopes, and the way the projections suggest, this could easily be a top 4 team this year. If I was the team manager, I would certainly want to sure up my RB corps a little bit and add some depth at WR.
My bold prediction- 9-4 good for a top 4 seed. Though I'm more than a bit concerned about the RB situation and the heavy reliance on return guys, I'm told John is a pretty savvy guy, so I'm betting he'll make some moves, and solid pickups that balance out the risk. The team should easily make the playoffs, and have a solid shot at making the big dance.
Team Get a Job AKA- Let it ride....on Moroney and Hasselbeck
GM- Patty O
Starters- 2033 (6) Bench- 2615 (10)
Though Pat's been much maligned for his Hasselbeck pick (probably by me more than any other), if Timmy (Hasselbeck, not Pat's dad) can stay healthy for the whole year, Pat might have the best 1-2 QB combo in the league. As I've stated to Pat, there's no doubt in my mind that he picked Mr. Seahawk way too early, however, he's healthy right now, and with Who'sYoMomma et al. around at WR, he's got the weapons to have a nice season. Johnny Lee Higgens could be a stud WR, though Al Davis is CRAZY (not like crazy like a fox, crazy like that old lady that used to walk around Kenosha in tights and a mini-skirt carrying a bag), and there's more than a possibility that the Raidas will give DHB a shot at returning kicks and/or catching J-Russel's long balls. Wayne should be solid (although for some reason I don't have a good feeling about Peyton and the Colts O-fence this year, just one of those gut things that's usually way off), and the old CJ (who is now CO, get it yet?) says he's in for a good year (but doesn't he say that every year?). And then he's got that big ole fat ? on the bench D-Hester. I know for Pat and most bears fans, it's not much of a ?, he's gonna be a stud WR and a stud return guy, and that's all there is too it. The only problem I see with this whole thing is that...he sucked big one's last year at both WR and KR(you can fill in whatever you want for "ones", I'm a Packer fan so I could have gotten pretty harsh, but I'm also a Christian, so that had to take precedent over my fandom.) So anyway, there's a chance, a possibility that he could have another WR weapon on his bench. As for Team Unemployment's RB corps. Well, he's got D-Sproles, and one way or another, he's probably gonna put up #s this year. There's always a chance of injury for anyone, but Sproles is a pretty small guy, so that's a bit worrying as he gets more touches. But he never really seems to get hit too much. It's kind of like he's a little pinball that just bounces around. So I'm gonna chalk Sproles up as a win for Pat. The rest of his RBs................epic FAIL. I'm sorry Pat, you know I love you, but how could you not learn your lesson on Moroney (and the Pat's run game in general) from your experience the last 2 years? The Patriots are a passing team and that's all there is too it, and when they do run, they split the carries up between 15 guys. Especially in a league like this where there are extra productive guys at each position because of return yds, there is no reason Moroney should be on anyone's roster. Of course there is a chance that I will eat my words at the end of the season, in which case I will bow to you as Fantasy Royalty, but there's probably not going to be another prediction on this page that I'm more confident of than this one. And your next best RB option is LJ, who I'm giving a chance at having a decent bounce back year, but I wouldn't want to have him as my sole RB2 option every week (especially with Jamal Charles having a solid preseason). IDPs are IDPs (except for the couple stud return CBs), so no comment needed there.
My Bold Prediction- 7-6 good for a #6 seed. I'm definitely worried about my dear unemployed friend's team at this point in the season, but I'm pretty confident in his FF prowess, and I believe Pat will manage his team well, make some good moves, and have a decent year. Until I see some solid moves to add some depth (or one of miracle Max's little brown pills for Moroney), I have a tough time seeing this team in the upper echelon for the league, but it will be good enough to make the playoffs.
Team Going to the Dance AKA-Wally wants to be on Dancing with the stars someday
GM- Wall-E
Starters- 2018 (8) Bench- 2659 (7)
Wally's team has the most traditional look I've seen so far. All of his starters are regular guys you'll see on any normal FF roster. (No Stefan Logan here) And....his starting QBs and RBs are all studs in regular FF setups. Well, guess what. They'll be studs here too. After looking at Wally's QB combo, I need to go edit the comment about Pat having the best. I'm not confident in Warner having the same year he did last year (he is getting kinda old), but if he does, just his 2 QBs alone are gonna keep Wally's team in a lot of games. In addition he's got LT who a lot of people think is going to have a really good bounce back year (but is not without risk) and Westy, who is always capable of putting up big #s, but is also getting up there in age. So for those two positions, it's a bit hit a home run-or-miss because of a broken hip. It's kind of hard to imagine all of those guys going through the season without having some bumps and bruises, but if they do, it could be a productive year from the RB and QB position. WR on the other hand needs a little help. Santonio looked great the other night, but as much as Big Ben got smacked around, I wouldn't be surprised if Mr. Holmes has Charlie Batch throwing to him at some point this year. Driver should give you steadily mediocre production every week (with a bonus 6 here or there), but WR is definitely the weak spot on this team. The good news is that with a fair amount of turnover for return guys throughout the season, there should be some opportunity to pick up a 5th string receiver who got promoted to KR/PR because somebody went down, and get some decent production out of the position. The other option is to move one of the stud QBs and add some depth at WR. If the "older than Warner" gunslinger for the Vikings starts putting up decent #s then it may be easier to deal with giving up Peyton or Warner.
My Bold Prediction- 5-8 Not quite good enough for a playoff berth. Sorry Wally, I've got to pick some teams to have a loosing record. I just have a hard time imagining all of the old guys on this team staying healthy all year long which is what I think it would take for a winning season given the weakness of the WR position. This team is going to get solid production from a handfull of players, so if Wally is able to make a few smart moves, and quick pickups, then there is more than a chance at making it to the playoffs, but making it to the BIG DANCE is going to take some good luck and some downright thievery from your fellow FFer's teams.
Team Pattymakers AKA- Pat's dad's team
Tim O'keefe AKA- Pat's dad
Starters-1726 (12) Team- 2276 (12)
Well, I don't put a ton of credence on Yahoo's projections, but as you can see by the ranks above, Tim's team needs some work. This is pretty understandable since Tim probably has much more of a life than the rest of us Fantasy dorks (John I mean that in the most complimentary way possible), and probably didn't stay up for 3 nights before the draft studying and working on spreadsheets. The starters have some promise, with 3 serviceable QBs Tim should get decent production out of the QB and Flex spot every week, and when a stud QB inevitably goes down, Tim's got some trade bait. S-Jax is gonna be a stud this year and probably go for 2500 yds and 20 TDs (no, I don't have him in another league, why do you ask?), but seriously, he's got a better O-line this year, and if he can stay healthy he should be solid. Pierre Thomas is banged up right now, and if Mike Bell does well in the Frenchy's absence (I guess he could be Canadian, or maybe just from the French district in N'Awlins), this could mean more of a shared backfield than there already is with Reggie Bush. On the other hand, if Bell stinks it up, it could solidify Thomas as the "every down except those on which Reggie Bush is catching screens that go 80 yds for a TD" back. (no, I don't have Reggie Bush, why do you ask?) So, Tim could have a solid back field, and serviceable QBs, but the WR corp needs quite a bit of help. It's possible that Evans will finally prove himself with TO there drawing some attention, but Edwards would have to stay healthy and be good (which is tough for him some days). Their O-line sucks a big one (again, substitute whatever you like for "one", I was thinking bomb-pop personally), which is why despite the hype, Marshawn Lynch was garbage last year, and probably will be the same this year. Anyway, Tim's WRs need some help. I'm not sure if Tim will ever read this, but if you do, whatever you do, don't drop any of your 3 QBs unless one of them gets hurt. Trading one of them down the road when someone else is desperate may really give your team a boost.
My Bold Prediction- 2-11 Sorry Tim, but somebody's got to be last. Of course, now that I've written all of this, I'm reminded that Tim actually knocked me out of the playoffs last year, and went on to face David in the Final, so there could be some shrewd dealings in the future from this team and a surprise run. Heck, it's fantasy football, and nothing is predictable, especially when there's only been one game played this season, and especially especially in league with Patty O's crazy rules.
Team The Be....yeah, like I was actually gonna call your team that. AKA- The Mediocre Team
GM- John Deadslave AKA-The Artist formerly known as Johnny Rocker
Starters- 2080 (5) Team- 2982 (2)
That jump from 5th best overall for starters to 2 overall for the team is why Johnny Rotten er I mean Rocker has got a team to watch...depth. He doesn't have the same firepower from his starters that John Herrin or as we'll see later DH has, but he's got the depth to work some stuff and build on an already solid base. But don't get too excited yet Johnny boy, you've got a couple of weak spots that might lose you a handfull of games before you can use that depth to your advantage. With AP, Felix the cat, some guy from Pittsburgh, and LJ's replacement, you're set at RB, and can count on solid production there. But QB and to a lesser extent WR are still a bit iffy. I'm guessing Romo will be ok, but I'm not willing to call him a sure thing until I can see that he's got someone other than Jason Witten to throw the ball to. (No Roy Williams doesn't count, until he can show that he was worth the 1st round pick the Lions wasted on him, I've got no faith in him or by association, Romo.) Roddy White will be good and put up solid #s, though in this league he's not quite the same value he is in others, as there are many WRs who also return that are going to be more productive and will very likely bump Roddy to the bottom of or possibly even out of the top 10 for WRs. (I know John, it sounds crazy, but it's just the way it is in this league. I love Greg Jennings, but it'll be close for him too.) The good news for John is that one of the guys who's going to bump Roddy down, is just down the bench in Ted Ginn. Teddy is MIA's numero uno WR (not that that means too much, Pennington had a decent year and is a good game manager, but Ginn's specialty is going downfield and I don't know if you remember, but last year the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets (yes I know that's unnecessary) dumped Pennington and picked up an old farmer dude with gray (or is it grey) hair because he could stretch the field better than Pennington) (wow, that's gotta be one of my longest parentheticals ever) (yes, I know I use them ()too much) (and yes, I know my punctuation is horrible, especially considering I was an English major.....you should see my spelling before I spell check) (Ok, I'm done, where the heck was I), and is also their KR, so he's gonna put up some stats this year. Trust me Johnny, come the end of the year, Ginn's the one you'll be pushing the keeper button on, not Roddy. The rest of your receivers, Gonzalez, V-Jax, Hixon, will make solid #3s for you, and will be decent trade bait as other teams don't have that good of options for their 3 spot. Consistent production from your TE & IDPs will help as well.
My Bold Prediction- 9-4 Good for a top 3 seed. As much as I hate to admit it, Johnny's team looks pretty tough as is, and I know how ambitious he is in FF, so it's only bound to get beter. You're doing pretty good when your weakest spot is QB, and Romo is your guy there. If Romo does look shaky in these first few weeks though, I wouldn't wait too long to use some of that depth to upgrade. The east isn't what it was a couple years ago, but it's still one of the tougher divisions in the league, and the rest of his schedule's no cake walk either (TEN, SD, GB, CAR, TB). I fully expect a strong season from Mr. Rocker, and will not be surprised at all to meet him in the championship game. (What did you think I was gonna pick against my own team?)
Kenosha Moose AKA- Curse the Madden Curse
GM- Tony B & Big Tony B AKA- Da new daddy & Da new daddy's daddy
Starters- 1946 (11) Team- 2697 (6)
Unfortunately for the TBs (Tony Berrriers not tuberculosises, or is it Barriers?) if we learned nothing else from Thursday's opening day action, we learned that the Curse is still in full effect. Troy-crazy guy with long hair running all over the field tackling everything in sight and making crazy one handed interceptions-Polamalu who is one half of the Madden cover this year spent the first half of the game doing all that stuff in the middle of his name. He spent the second half in Dr James Andrew's consultation office trying to figure out how long he'd be out with a jacked up knee. What does any of this have to do with the Tonys you ask (the Tony Berriers, not the Tony awards they give out for musicals, or is it Barriers?), well, it just so happens that the other cursed half of said Madden cover is none other than the Barrier's (I'm going with this from here on out) first pick Larry Fitzgerald. Now, for the record, I don't really believe in curses (though it is pretty unbelievable that the Cubs have gone 100 years without winning a World Series), but I do believe that Kurt Warner is Fitz's QB and that he's 38 years old which is only 9 years older than me (wierd), but for a pro football player is getting up there, and I also believe that behind Warner is this guy named Matt Leinart who is more concerned about the chicks in his hottub than being a decent pro QB. So all that being said, Fitz is a stud, but I didn't draft him at all this year because I'm a bit worried that with a healthy Boldin all year, or an unhealthy Warner some of the year, Fitz isn't gonna reproduce what he did last year. And then there's always the possibility that the curse is real, and that Fitz is goin down with a broken coccyx (yep, that's how it's spelled, I looked it up). So anyway, on to the rest of the TB's team. I know some people are up on Carson Palmer this year, and I don't think he's gonna be a bad QB, but when your only other option in a play 2 QBs if you got em league, is Hill (it's getting late and I can't remember his first name, I kept thinking Rich, but that's the pitcher for the Cubs that was supposed to help them break the curse, but just ended up sucking)......kinda iffy in my opinion. Shaun, I just looked it up. The TB's WRs look pretty good. As long as Fitz isn't cursed this year, he'll be a stud, and Welker should be good, especially if he keeps returning punts, he'll get a few extra points per week for that. Ward is one of those guys like Driver that'll get you some points every week, and once in a while pull out a 12-16 pointer, and Roy Williams on the bench is a good spot for him until he proves otherwise. Pat laughed at Stanley, but if he's returning both kicks and punts, he could be a big bonus to this team. RB is the weakest position, and you're not even that bad there. Chris Johnson didn't do you (or me in my other league) any good Thursday, but he was going against the Steel Curtain, so how much should we have been expecting. He did show spurts though. I am a little concerned about Big fat Lendale-cheeseburger cheeseburger-White loosing some weight. He didn't do much against the Steelers either, but for whatever reason I though what he did looked good. Well, that's a good thing you might say cause I have Fatso too. Nope, you're not gonna be playing both Ten RBs, so you want one or the other getting the rock, and the one you want getting it is CJ (yes John, I know there's 37 of them but the Tonys know which one I'm talking about). I think Ryan Grant's gonna have a good year, but I'm a totally biased Packers fan, so my vote of confidence doesn't mean too much. But the Pack's passing attack is gonna put them up big early and often, and since Mike McCarthy isn't that stupid jerky guy in New England with the stupid sweatshirt with the sleaves cut off, the Pack will probably start running the ball when they get ahead big instead of thinking that the NFL is like the BCS and that the more points you score the better the chance you have of going to the National Championship game. Stupid belichick, I hate that guy. I don't remember what it's for, but have you guys seen the commercial where the guy's talking about wearing a sweatshirt with the sleaves cut off like stupid belichick (yes, that's his official name) and he says "cause it looks awesome"? Just wondering if you've seen it. I like it. Wow do I get on tangents when it gets late. Ok, anyway, Tonys your team isn't bad, but I'm guessing that halfway through the season you're gonna want an upgrade at QB, and a little more depth at RB. And no, Fred Taylor doesn't count as depth at RB. (Though he'll probably finish the season with more fantasy points than Moroney. OK Pat I'm done now.)
My Bold Prediction- 5-8 Missing the playoffs by a couple. Though the TBs have drafted a solid team, there's just not as much firepower here as some of the upper tier teams in the league. There is definitely a solid base for this team, and the jump from 11th for starters projections to 6th for team projections is the biggest differential in the league and points to a decent bench that will open the door for potential moves down the road. If the two heads really are better than one, then the Tonys could very easily make some moves and switch that 5-8 to an 8-5 by the time midseason predictions roll around.
Team Wheaties AKA-The Return Men
GM-John Herrin
Starters-2193 (3) Team-2857 (4)
At first glance John's team looks like a bunch of 2nd string scrubs and young punk kids (aside from studs Brees & CJ (the one and only CJ now that the other CJ is CO)), however, a quick look at the projections (or the league rules) reveals that John's team is actually pretty stacked full of studs. He's got the best FF QB in the game (sorry Pat, but Brady's gotta prove he can repeat '07, Brees does it every year), and his WR corp is anchored not by CJ (who will be a top 5 WR in every other league in the world), but by Steve Breaston who projects a full 60 pts higher than Johnson. Add in D-Jax (the new one, not the washed up one who used to play for SanFran), and he's stacked at the position. At RB, he's got one of the best for this league in J. Norwood (who I drafted a few years ago in a regular league thinking he would take over for Warrick Dunn when his legs finally break off...didn't happen), but after that it's pretty thin. I know there's some guys out there that are drinking the Ced Benson cool-aid this year...but....the only thing I could think to write is something pretty morbid about Jim Jones (the People's Temple one, not the recently deceased great D-coordinator for the Iggles), so never mind. Team Wheaties could also get some decent production out of IDPs from return yards.
This team has the potential to put up big points on any given week, but I want to see the league in action before I'm ready to basically trust an entire team to return guys. It seems to me that there is lot of potential for disappointment with this team, but if it turns out the way John hopes, and the way the projections suggest, this could easily be a top 4 team this year. If I was the team manager, I would certainly want to sure up my RB corps a little bit and add some depth at WR.
My bold prediction- 9-4 good for a top 4 seed. Though I'm more than a bit concerned about the RB situation and the heavy reliance on return guys, I'm told John is a pretty savvy guy, so I'm betting he'll make some moves, and solid pickups that balance out the risk. The team should easily make the playoffs, and have a solid shot at making the big dance.
Team Get a Job AKA- Let it ride....on Moroney and Hasselbeck
GM- Patty O
Starters- 2033 (6) Bench- 2615 (10)
Though Pat's been much maligned for his Hasselbeck pick (probably by me more than any other), if Timmy (Hasselbeck, not Pat's dad) can stay healthy for the whole year, Pat might have the best 1-2 QB combo in the league. As I've stated to Pat, there's no doubt in my mind that he picked Mr. Seahawk way too early, however, he's healthy right now, and with Who'sYoMomma et al. around at WR, he's got the weapons to have a nice season. Johnny Lee Higgens could be a stud WR, though Al Davis is CRAZY (not like crazy like a fox, crazy like that old lady that used to walk around Kenosha in tights and a mini-skirt carrying a bag), and there's more than a possibility that the Raidas will give DHB a shot at returning kicks and/or catching J-Russel's long balls. Wayne should be solid (although for some reason I don't have a good feeling about Peyton and the Colts O-fence this year, just one of those gut things that's usually way off), and the old CJ (who is now CO, get it yet?) says he's in for a good year (but doesn't he say that every year?). And then he's got that big ole fat ? on the bench D-Hester. I know for Pat and most bears fans, it's not much of a ?, he's gonna be a stud WR and a stud return guy, and that's all there is too it. The only problem I see with this whole thing is that...he sucked big one's last year at both WR and KR(you can fill in whatever you want for "ones", I'm a Packer fan so I could have gotten pretty harsh, but I'm also a Christian, so that had to take precedent over my fandom.) So anyway, there's a chance, a possibility that he could have another WR weapon on his bench. As for Team Unemployment's RB corps. Well, he's got D-Sproles, and one way or another, he's probably gonna put up #s this year. There's always a chance of injury for anyone, but Sproles is a pretty small guy, so that's a bit worrying as he gets more touches. But he never really seems to get hit too much. It's kind of like he's a little pinball that just bounces around. So I'm gonna chalk Sproles up as a win for Pat. The rest of his RBs................epic FAIL. I'm sorry Pat, you know I love you, but how could you not learn your lesson on Moroney (and the Pat's run game in general) from your experience the last 2 years? The Patriots are a passing team and that's all there is too it, and when they do run, they split the carries up between 15 guys. Especially in a league like this where there are extra productive guys at each position because of return yds, there is no reason Moroney should be on anyone's roster. Of course there is a chance that I will eat my words at the end of the season, in which case I will bow to you as Fantasy Royalty, but there's probably not going to be another prediction on this page that I'm more confident of than this one. And your next best RB option is LJ, who I'm giving a chance at having a decent bounce back year, but I wouldn't want to have him as my sole RB2 option every week (especially with Jamal Charles having a solid preseason). IDPs are IDPs (except for the couple stud return CBs), so no comment needed there.
My Bold Prediction- 7-6 good for a #6 seed. I'm definitely worried about my dear unemployed friend's team at this point in the season, but I'm pretty confident in his FF prowess, and I believe Pat will manage his team well, make some good moves, and have a decent year. Until I see some solid moves to add some depth (or one of miracle Max's little brown pills for Moroney), I have a tough time seeing this team in the upper echelon for the league, but it will be good enough to make the playoffs.
Team Going to the Dance AKA-Wally wants to be on Dancing with the stars someday
GM- Wall-E
Starters- 2018 (8) Bench- 2659 (7)
Wally's team has the most traditional look I've seen so far. All of his starters are regular guys you'll see on any normal FF roster. (No Stefan Logan here) And....his starting QBs and RBs are all studs in regular FF setups. Well, guess what. They'll be studs here too. After looking at Wally's QB combo, I need to go edit the comment about Pat having the best. I'm not confident in Warner having the same year he did last year (he is getting kinda old), but if he does, just his 2 QBs alone are gonna keep Wally's team in a lot of games. In addition he's got LT who a lot of people think is going to have a really good bounce back year (but is not without risk) and Westy, who is always capable of putting up big #s, but is also getting up there in age. So for those two positions, it's a bit hit a home run-or-miss because of a broken hip. It's kind of hard to imagine all of those guys going through the season without having some bumps and bruises, but if they do, it could be a productive year from the RB and QB position. WR on the other hand needs a little help. Santonio looked great the other night, but as much as Big Ben got smacked around, I wouldn't be surprised if Mr. Holmes has Charlie Batch throwing to him at some point this year. Driver should give you steadily mediocre production every week (with a bonus 6 here or there), but WR is definitely the weak spot on this team. The good news is that with a fair amount of turnover for return guys throughout the season, there should be some opportunity to pick up a 5th string receiver who got promoted to KR/PR because somebody went down, and get some decent production out of the position. The other option is to move one of the stud QBs and add some depth at WR. If the "older than Warner" gunslinger for the Vikings starts putting up decent #s then it may be easier to deal with giving up Peyton or Warner.
My Bold Prediction- 5-8 Not quite good enough for a playoff berth. Sorry Wally, I've got to pick some teams to have a loosing record. I just have a hard time imagining all of the old guys on this team staying healthy all year long which is what I think it would take for a winning season given the weakness of the WR position. This team is going to get solid production from a handfull of players, so if Wally is able to make a few smart moves, and quick pickups, then there is more than a chance at making it to the playoffs, but making it to the BIG DANCE is going to take some good luck and some downright thievery from your fellow FFer's teams.
Team Pattymakers AKA- Pat's dad's team
Tim O'keefe AKA- Pat's dad
Starters-1726 (12) Team- 2276 (12)
Well, I don't put a ton of credence on Yahoo's projections, but as you can see by the ranks above, Tim's team needs some work. This is pretty understandable since Tim probably has much more of a life than the rest of us Fantasy dorks (John I mean that in the most complimentary way possible), and probably didn't stay up for 3 nights before the draft studying and working on spreadsheets. The starters have some promise, with 3 serviceable QBs Tim should get decent production out of the QB and Flex spot every week, and when a stud QB inevitably goes down, Tim's got some trade bait. S-Jax is gonna be a stud this year and probably go for 2500 yds and 20 TDs (no, I don't have him in another league, why do you ask?), but seriously, he's got a better O-line this year, and if he can stay healthy he should be solid. Pierre Thomas is banged up right now, and if Mike Bell does well in the Frenchy's absence (I guess he could be Canadian, or maybe just from the French district in N'Awlins), this could mean more of a shared backfield than there already is with Reggie Bush. On the other hand, if Bell stinks it up, it could solidify Thomas as the "every down except those on which Reggie Bush is catching screens that go 80 yds for a TD" back. (no, I don't have Reggie Bush, why do you ask?) So, Tim could have a solid back field, and serviceable QBs, but the WR corp needs quite a bit of help. It's possible that Evans will finally prove himself with TO there drawing some attention, but Edwards would have to stay healthy and be good (which is tough for him some days). Their O-line sucks a big one (again, substitute whatever you like for "one", I was thinking bomb-pop personally), which is why despite the hype, Marshawn Lynch was garbage last year, and probably will be the same this year. Anyway, Tim's WRs need some help. I'm not sure if Tim will ever read this, but if you do, whatever you do, don't drop any of your 3 QBs unless one of them gets hurt. Trading one of them down the road when someone else is desperate may really give your team a boost.
My Bold Prediction- 2-11 Sorry Tim, but somebody's got to be last. Of course, now that I've written all of this, I'm reminded that Tim actually knocked me out of the playoffs last year, and went on to face David in the Final, so there could be some shrewd dealings in the future from this team and a surprise run. Heck, it's fantasy football, and nothing is predictable, especially when there's only been one game played this season, and especially especially in league with Patty O's crazy rules.
Team The Be....yeah, like I was actually gonna call your team that. AKA- The Mediocre Team
GM- John Deadslave AKA-The Artist formerly known as Johnny Rocker
Starters- 2080 (5) Team- 2982 (2)
That jump from 5th best overall for starters to 2 overall for the team is why Johnny Rotten er I mean Rocker has got a team to watch...depth. He doesn't have the same firepower from his starters that John Herrin or as we'll see later DH has, but he's got the depth to work some stuff and build on an already solid base. But don't get too excited yet Johnny boy, you've got a couple of weak spots that might lose you a handfull of games before you can use that depth to your advantage. With AP, Felix the cat, some guy from Pittsburgh, and LJ's replacement, you're set at RB, and can count on solid production there. But QB and to a lesser extent WR are still a bit iffy. I'm guessing Romo will be ok, but I'm not willing to call him a sure thing until I can see that he's got someone other than Jason Witten to throw the ball to. (No Roy Williams doesn't count, until he can show that he was worth the 1st round pick the Lions wasted on him, I've got no faith in him or by association, Romo.) Roddy White will be good and put up solid #s, though in this league he's not quite the same value he is in others, as there are many WRs who also return that are going to be more productive and will very likely bump Roddy to the bottom of or possibly even out of the top 10 for WRs. (I know John, it sounds crazy, but it's just the way it is in this league. I love Greg Jennings, but it'll be close for him too.) The good news for John is that one of the guys who's going to bump Roddy down, is just down the bench in Ted Ginn. Teddy is MIA's numero uno WR (not that that means too much, Pennington had a decent year and is a good game manager, but Ginn's specialty is going downfield and I don't know if you remember, but last year the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets (yes I know that's unnecessary) dumped Pennington and picked up an old farmer dude with gray (or is it grey) hair because he could stretch the field better than Pennington) (wow, that's gotta be one of my longest parentheticals ever) (yes, I know I use them ()too much) (and yes, I know my punctuation is horrible, especially considering I was an English major.....you should see my spelling before I spell check) (Ok, I'm done, where the heck was I), and is also their KR, so he's gonna put up some stats this year. Trust me Johnny, come the end of the year, Ginn's the one you'll be pushing the keeper button on, not Roddy. The rest of your receivers, Gonzalez, V-Jax, Hixon, will make solid #3s for you, and will be decent trade bait as other teams don't have that good of options for their 3 spot. Consistent production from your TE & IDPs will help as well.
My Bold Prediction- 9-4 Good for a top 3 seed. As much as I hate to admit it, Johnny's team looks pretty tough as is, and I know how ambitious he is in FF, so it's only bound to get beter. You're doing pretty good when your weakest spot is QB, and Romo is your guy there. If Romo does look shaky in these first few weeks though, I wouldn't wait too long to use some of that depth to upgrade. The east isn't what it was a couple years ago, but it's still one of the tougher divisions in the league, and the rest of his schedule's no cake walk either (TEN, SD, GB, CAR, TB). I fully expect a strong season from Mr. Rocker, and will not be surprised at all to meet him in the championship game. (What did you think I was gonna pick against my own team?)
Kenosha Moose AKA- Curse the Madden Curse
GM- Tony B & Big Tony B AKA- Da new daddy & Da new daddy's daddy
Starters- 1946 (11) Team- 2697 (6)
Unfortunately for the TBs (Tony Berrriers not tuberculosises, or is it Barriers?) if we learned nothing else from Thursday's opening day action, we learned that the Curse is still in full effect. Troy-crazy guy with long hair running all over the field tackling everything in sight and making crazy one handed interceptions-Polamalu who is one half of the Madden cover this year spent the first half of the game doing all that stuff in the middle of his name. He spent the second half in Dr James Andrew's consultation office trying to figure out how long he'd be out with a jacked up knee. What does any of this have to do with the Tonys you ask (the Tony Berriers, not the Tony awards they give out for musicals, or is it Barriers?), well, it just so happens that the other cursed half of said Madden cover is none other than the Barrier's (I'm going with this from here on out) first pick Larry Fitzgerald. Now, for the record, I don't really believe in curses (though it is pretty unbelievable that the Cubs have gone 100 years without winning a World Series), but I do believe that Kurt Warner is Fitz's QB and that he's 38 years old which is only 9 years older than me (wierd), but for a pro football player is getting up there, and I also believe that behind Warner is this guy named Matt Leinart who is more concerned about the chicks in his hottub than being a decent pro QB. So all that being said, Fitz is a stud, but I didn't draft him at all this year because I'm a bit worried that with a healthy Boldin all year, or an unhealthy Warner some of the year, Fitz isn't gonna reproduce what he did last year. And then there's always the possibility that the curse is real, and that Fitz is goin down with a broken coccyx (yep, that's how it's spelled, I looked it up). So anyway, on to the rest of the TB's team. I know some people are up on Carson Palmer this year, and I don't think he's gonna be a bad QB, but when your only other option in a play 2 QBs if you got em league, is Hill (it's getting late and I can't remember his first name, I kept thinking Rich, but that's the pitcher for the Cubs that was supposed to help them break the curse, but just ended up sucking)......kinda iffy in my opinion. Shaun, I just looked it up. The TB's WRs look pretty good. As long as Fitz isn't cursed this year, he'll be a stud, and Welker should be good, especially if he keeps returning punts, he'll get a few extra points per week for that. Ward is one of those guys like Driver that'll get you some points every week, and once in a while pull out a 12-16 pointer, and Roy Williams on the bench is a good spot for him until he proves otherwise. Pat laughed at Stanley, but if he's returning both kicks and punts, he could be a big bonus to this team. RB is the weakest position, and you're not even that bad there. Chris Johnson didn't do you (or me in my other league) any good Thursday, but he was going against the Steel Curtain, so how much should we have been expecting. He did show spurts though. I am a little concerned about Big fat Lendale-cheeseburger cheeseburger-White loosing some weight. He didn't do much against the Steelers either, but for whatever reason I though what he did looked good. Well, that's a good thing you might say cause I have Fatso too. Nope, you're not gonna be playing both Ten RBs, so you want one or the other getting the rock, and the one you want getting it is CJ (yes John, I know there's 37 of them but the Tonys know which one I'm talking about). I think Ryan Grant's gonna have a good year, but I'm a totally biased Packers fan, so my vote of confidence doesn't mean too much. But the Pack's passing attack is gonna put them up big early and often, and since Mike McCarthy isn't that stupid jerky guy in New England with the stupid sweatshirt with the sleaves cut off, the Pack will probably start running the ball when they get ahead big instead of thinking that the NFL is like the BCS and that the more points you score the better the chance you have of going to the National Championship game. Stupid belichick, I hate that guy. I don't remember what it's for, but have you guys seen the commercial where the guy's talking about wearing a sweatshirt with the sleaves cut off like stupid belichick (yes, that's his official name) and he says "cause it looks awesome"? Just wondering if you've seen it. I like it. Wow do I get on tangents when it gets late. Ok, anyway, Tonys your team isn't bad, but I'm guessing that halfway through the season you're gonna want an upgrade at QB, and a little more depth at RB. And no, Fred Taylor doesn't count as depth at RB. (Though he'll probably finish the season with more fantasy points than Moroney. OK Pat I'm done now.)
My Bold Prediction- 5-8 Missing the playoffs by a couple. Though the TBs have drafted a solid team, there's just not as much firepower here as some of the upper tier teams in the league. There is definitely a solid base for this team, and the jump from 11th for starters projections to 6th for team projections is the biggest differential in the league and points to a decent bench that will open the door for potential moves down the road. If the two heads really are better than one, then the Tonys could very easily make some moves and switch that 5-8 to an 8-5 by the time midseason predictions roll around.
Coming tonight...hopefully.
This year's pre-season edition of "My Bold Predictions".
We'll see if I can get all my real work done.
We'll see if I can get all my real work done.
September 9, 2009
September 1, 2009
Can this pleeeeaaassseeee be a MAN'S league?
Ok, so I guess I was a bit too harsh with my initial post. I stand by my main point, however, that it is a chump move to respond to a realistic trade offer (even if you think it's a bad one) with a complete garbage offer. If you don't like a trade offer, simply decline it or counter offer something you think is more realistic. Why would I or anyone else offer a trade with the purpose of insulting the other guy? If I wanted to do that, I'd just put up a jerky post on the league blog or something. So don't be insulted by trade offers, and be reasonable enough to realize that people value players very differently, so just because you think the trade someone is offering you is crap doesn't mean they are trying to rip you off. They might just think differently than you do. So anyway, good luck to everyone and remember...
THIS IS A MAN'S LEAGUE....ACT LIKE IT!
THIS IS A MAN'S LEAGUE....ACT LIKE IT!
Real Football
Who do you guys think will win each division? NFC/AFC Champs? Who will win the SB? I know it's early, but let's get some predictions out there. I'm interested to see every fan pick their own team to win the division. :)
August 28, 2009
Some things to think about... and instructions.
Here we are, two days before the draft. I don't know where many of you are at in preparation... I know I feel the weight of a few hours in Excel looming over me, forever up until now being put off. You'd think I spend time doing stuff like this while being unemployed. You'd be surprised at how many other things seem more important!
Anyway, I want to write a quick post regarding the value you may be placing at certain positions in the draft. Don't worry, I'm not changing anything, but I think there's something present in this league that if you haven't already considered it, you should very soon. Like... now.
A while ago I wrote a few of you in an e-mail about some of the major changes in the league. One of the significant differences I mentioned was the new value of Special Teams play for individual players. While Kyle mentioned this in a post not long ago, I don't think that the real point was communicated as much as it needs to be. Special Teams players receive fantasy points in this league in a very similar, if not exactly similar, way to regular offensive players.
Consider this: The Green Bay Packers, the chumps they are, kick off to Devin Hester on 9/13, assured that Hester will continue his slump from last year. On the opening kick, Hester receives the ball and WHAM... runs it back for a ninety yard return touchdown, jumping over two Packers along the way, hitting A.J Hawk in the mouth, green gold and blood all over his unifor... okay, no... 95% (and lowering, Josh) percent of leagues award 6pts to whoever was sly enough to grab the Chicago D/ST this year, while you watch the StatTracker and notice that the obviously inexperienced or moronic team who took Hester in the 5th round just got 15 pts to start the game, without even playing one offensive down. You see, Hester received 1pt for every 10yrds he returned (exactly like an offensive player), and another 6ts for making a touchdown (yup), totaling 15pts.
This kind of production will be awarded to ALL players of Special Teams. Is it going to radically change the first round of the draft? Probably not, but maybe! Will it change the middle rounds? We'd be stupid to think it wouldn't. Guys like MJD, Hester, Sproles, etc. have enormously increased value, and I won't be surprised to see them go very, very early.
So my warning to you is: Think about this. Consider it, and know the value of the players before you draft assuming that this is a normal league. There are significant changes, so understand them before Sunday.
If you haven't really decided how your draft is going to look, or if you haven't done much to prepare, you're in the same boat as me. Though, you're probably not lucky enough to be unemployed to devote free time like I can. So get ready while you can, Sunday is fast approaching.
One more thing. I'd like everyone to be here between 12:30pm and 1pm, and be ready to START DRAFTING at 1:05pm. I imagine the draft to take a while, but it shouldn't drag as long as we follow the very intuitive time schedule I have made.
Please let me know if you need anything. I am going to provide chip-like snacks and soda for the draft. If anyone wants beer, please bring a six-pack at your leisure. I'd also like to ask everyone who wants to order pizza following the draft to bring $6-7 CASH to contribute to the bill, as I have time being unemployed, but no money. Below is my address, with simple instructions from Kenosha.
Take 31 north to Racine.
Take a right onto HWY C/Spring St.
Take a left at the first light, Spring Valley Drive.
Stay left
Go to the end of the road, the house is green on the left hand side.
1518 Spring Valley Drive
Racine
Good luck to all. Please let me know if you have any questions!
August 25, 2009
New Roster Structure
League,
Here is what the new roster setup will look like according to the final vote.
QB
RB
RB
WR
WR
WR
TE
Flex (QB/RB/WR/TE)
K
IDP
IDP
IDP
BN
BN
BN
BN
BN
BN
IR
IR (thanks Josh)
There are 18 roster spots. I'll post some final things soon regarding the draft (nothing that will change the rules, just some last minute things).
If there is ANYTHING else that is unclear, please let me know on this blog so it can be clarified. The last thing I want is someone to say on draft day "I didn't know THAT'S what we were doing!"
Peace.
August 24, 2009
Keeper Side of things
I was wondering if you could explain in a little more detail the "keeper" side of things. I know we briefly talked about it, but it would be great to see some official stuff on it. If this is something that you have already posted then just point me in the right direction. Thanks Pat!
Rules and Stuff. Important Stuff. Stuff you should read.
Some may be wondering "what are the rules to win this league over a three years span?" I admit I have not given much insight into this, though a few of you have given your opinion in how this should work, which I believe I have incorporated well. This post should sufficiently explain how to win the main jackpot of the league.
There will be two modes of play in this league, and accordingly, two modes of reward. There is the one-year term and the three-year term.
One Year Term
Each year you will pay me $25 which will go toward the winners of the league that year. The rewards will be distributed as follows:
1st: $175
2nd: $75
3rd: $25
The last $25 will be given to the winner of a separate game we will play, which will be similar to a playoff pick'em style game, only online. I thought this would be a good idea for us to stay interested throughout the playoffs. NFL.com usually has a game called Playoff Challenge which involves picking winners and individual player performances throughout the playoffs. We can see what's available when the time comes, though.
Three Year Term
This will be a little more complicated. It will reward wins, player performance and league performance via a points system as follows:
League Performance
100pts - 1st Place (if you get 1st Place one year, you get 100pts towards the 3 year term)
60pts - 2nd Place
35pts - 3rd Place
25pts - Best Record
25pts - Most Fantasy Points
(EDIT) 25pts - Any team to make the playoffs but not reach 1st, 2nd or 3rd
Each of the following performance categories will be awarded 25pts on a yearly basis.
Passing Yards
Rushing Yards
Receiving Yards
Tackles
Interceptions
Sacks
Each week, I will draw two performance categories out of a hat, one offensive and one defensive, from the categories listed above. The team(s) to have the best performance in each category will receive 5 points.
*If the unlikely scenario occurs where a team wins 1st Place all three years, but does not have enough points to win the league, they, by default, win the league anyway.*
The Three Year Term award money will be distributed as follows:
1st Place - $700
2nd Place - $325
3rd Place - $175
Below is a possible scenario where Wally wins the league by winning 1st place one year and having a very strong performance all three years. I didn't include the weekly 5pt awards.
Other players are competitive, but not enough. I made the points system structured in a way that rewards 1st, 2nd and 3rd place winnings the most points, because I believe they are the closest resemblence to the way the NFL awards teams (its all about W's). However, I think that in a three year league, we can respect those teams that may perform well but have bad playoff weeks from year to year. This is why I also want to award points to overall performances.
I'm going to update this blog weekly with how everyone is doing in regards to this on either Tuesday or Wednesday every week in a very easy to read table.
I hope this sounds good to everyone. I'm open to minor changes, but I think this really is a good way to award teams throughout the course of the league. Please let me know if you have any questions, complaints, or yes, even praises! E-mail, comment on this post, or whatever...
August 23, 2009
Two-QB Controversy -Please vote!
Okay.
I understand that there are some drawbacks to having 2 QB's with 12 teams. Bye weeks, injuries, etc. If someone drafts Peyton Manning, and he goes down in the 2nd game, that player is at a serious disadvantage, considering that all of the starting QB's will inevitably be taken already. I don't want to put anyone through the situation of having to leave a roster spot empty every week. I don't think that I can produce a feasible solution to the bye-week/injury debate with the current set of rules. In my opinion, this is a problem that we are all facing evenly and fairly. I intend on punting the missing QB slot for my team during bye weeks, and hoping that no one goes down on injury. But, I can't persuade anyone else to play like that.
While I still want to keep 2 QB's in this league, I also want to make it as fun as possible while culturing competitive play. Therefore, I am going to put it to vote. I know if anything changes now, it may affect your draft analysis thus far. Though, in my experience, the major parts of my draft analysis happen within the week before the draft, being finalized the day before. I want to apologize in advance if this ends up affecting any draft analysis you've already done.
These are the three options:
1) Keep the league as-is. Two quarterbacks, and the QB/Flex option.
2) Change the roster spots to 1 QB, but keep the Flex position to allow a 2nd starting QB. Also, add another IDP position (I will want to add another IDP spot if Option 2 was voted best to attempt to recover the lost depth at QB strategy).
3) Only allow 2 QB's to be owned by any team at any given time (except in injury situations), and make the Flex position only RB/WR/TE.
Please let me know your vote as soon as possible. I will see what everyone thinks and change the rules accordingly (if necessary) on Tuesday at noon.
Looking to trade my 2nd overall pick!!!
If anyone is interested in my 2nd overall pick please let me know. You can contact me at pcampen568@gmail or text/call me at 262-620-7774. Please feel free to make an offer!!! Thanks and good luck everyone!!
HAHAHAHA
Really? A 1st and 2nd round pick for the #1 overall?
Just so everyone knows, I have the 3rd overall, and it is also available for a much much lower price than a 1st & 2nd round pick.
Assuming Peterson and Turner are taken 1 & 2, that leaves me to pick Forte or Jones Drew. I don't trust Jones Drew, and Forte is a Bear. Make me an offer.
Just so everyone knows, I have the 3rd overall, and it is also available for a much much lower price than a 1st & 2nd round pick.
Assuming Peterson and Turner are taken 1 & 2, that leaves me to pick Forte or Jones Drew. I don't trust Jones Drew, and Forte is a Bear. Make me an offer.
August 22, 2009
Draft Trades
I am willing and open to hear trade offers for my 1st overall draft pick. I would like a 1st and 2nd round pick for my 1st round pick and another pick or assortment of picks. Please email me at jfreeborn1@gmail.com or call/text me at 262-358-2026.
John Freeborn
John Freeborn
Draft Order
I have completed the draft order. This is an excellent opportunity to refine your draft strategy and should allow you to realistically target players. For those of you that are curious as to the process employed, you can watch the entire process at http://www.twitvid.com/3DEF3. And now to the important stuff...
1. John Freeborn - Bobby Jones Gospel
2. Paul Campen - Hit and Run
3. Josh Aulozzi - I Get My Butt Kicked
4. Kyle Jolly - Jay Cutler
5. Tim O'Keefe - Pattymakers
6. Miguel Pulido - Freeborns mom
7. Brian DeCesaro - Wheaties
8. David Hamilton - PRE-PRE-SEASON
9. Tony Barriere - Kenosha Moose
10. Pat O'Keefe - The Bluths
11. Wally Matoska - (not yet signed up)
12. John Herrin - Vipers
ENJOI
How to win your Two-QB league
How to win your Two-QB league
If there's one complaint I hear all the time about standard fantasy football leagues, it's that fantasy owners don't get to fraternize with cheerleaders.
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But if there's a second complaint I hear all the time about standard fantasy football leagues, it's that the most important position in real football -- quarterback -- is too normalized and commodified, and thus marginalized, on fantasy draft day. I mean, an NFL franchise would sell its first-born mascot (and spend hundreds of millions of dollars) to find a great starting quarterback, but when it comes to fantasy drafts, we "experts" routinely tell you to take two running backs and often one or two receivers before you grab a signal-caller?
Well, there's a flavor of ESPN's fantasy football game that solves this issue. When you play the "Two-QB" version of our game, you're forced to start a second quarterback (as well as a third receiver). Even in a 10-team league, quarterback scarcity now becomes an issue, in a way that previously applied to only running backs. (Sorry to those of you in search of a "Two-Kicker" game.) Not only must you select two quarterbacks for your starting lineup, but you have to seriously consider grabbing a third for bye weeks. When the 20 best signal-callers are in starting fantasy lineups, it gets a heck of a lot harder to troll for decent options if you're in need of a backup.
In addition, Two-QB leagues inject another starting wide receiver into the mix, so you now have 11 starters: two QBs, two RBs, three WRs, one RB/WR, one TE, one K and one DEF. The overall intention here, clearly, is to try to balance the top of your fantasy draft. Even in standard leagues, the strategy of always going RB-RB in your first two rounds has become at least mildly suspect; in Two-QB leagues, it is downright bankrupt. No, the idea of a Two-QB league is to spread scarcity more evenly across fantasy's three primary positions. Let's look at a handy little chart to see what I mean; let's compare scarcity in standard leagues and Two-QB leagues:
| Two-QB League Scarcity Analysis | |||||
| Pos | Starters (Real NFL) | Starters (Fantasy) | Percent Started | ||
| QB - Standard | 32 | 10 | 31% | ||
| QB - Two-QB | 32 | 20 | 62% | ||
| RB - Standard | 32 | 20 | 62% | ||
| RB - Two-QB | 32 | 20 | 62% | ||
| WR - Standard | 64 | 20 | 31% | ||
| WR - Two-QB | 64 | 30 | 47% | ||
In other words, whereas in a standard fantasy league, RB scarcity tends to be twice as urgent as QB and WR scarcity, in a Two-QB league, you have the same percentage of starting NFL players at RB and QB who will wind up starting in fantasy leagues. Now, these percentages aren't entirely accurate, because there's a RB/WR flex starting position in each of these league types. But the point stands: We've substantially leveled the playing field among positions.
Does this mean you should ignore that tried-and-true fantasy maxim about RB primacy? Not quite. A look at the standard deviations among the top performers at each of the three major fantasy positions reinforces that getting a stud rusher is still important:
| Fantasy Point Standard Deviations, 2007 | |||||
| Position | Top 10 Std. Dev. | Top 20 Std. Dev. | Top 30 Std. Dev. | ||
| RB | 41.5 | 43.3 | 45.9 | ||
| QB | 27.8 | 43.6 | 59 | ||
| WR | 22.6 | 21.9 | 22.7 | ||
Translation: The drop-off among the elite running backs is nearly instantaneous, whereas the drop-off among the elite quarterbacks happens in the 11-to-20 range, and there really is no drop-off among elite receivers -- they're spread out relatively evenly.
Thus, despite the fact that scarcity now is evenly spread among QB, RB and WR, it still makes sense to try to grab what we currently consider an "elite" rusher in the first round of your Two-QB draft. Certainly, that includes LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson and Joseph Addai. (However, if you can't get one of those guys, taking Tom Brady or Randy Moss in the first round continues to be a fine strategy, as it is in a standard league.) Where things start to get confusing is after your first pick.
Now you have to start thinking quarterback. The stars (Brady, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo and Drew Brees) all should be second-round picks, and whereas in standard leagues, my advice always is to wait a long, long, long time to take your quarterback if you miss out on the elites, in a Two-QB league, you don't have such luxury. Now, grabbing your first quarterback is as urgent as grabbing your first wide receiver and your second running back. And frankly, the beauty of our Two-QB format is that I really can't prescribe, round by round, which positions you should take in the third, fourth and fifth rounds. After you make sure to secure that top-10 rusher, the best strategy I can offer is to take the best remaining players on the board, regardless of position, with the caveat that you'd better spread the love among QB, RB and WR. Focus too heavily on any of these, and the scarcity bug will bite you in the positions you ignore.
In summary, my draft strategy recommendations for Two-QB leagues go like this:
• Continue to lean toward RB in the first round, and continue to try like heck to get one of the top 10 rushers.
• Take your first quarterback in the second or third round, unless it's Brady.
• Stick to the "best available" premise in the first four or five rounds.
• However, in those early rounds, don't focus on one of the "big three" positions to the exclusion of any other.
• Think seriously about drafting three quarterbacks, because bye weeks will be tough to fill.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy baseball, football and racing analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner across all three of those sports. You can e-mail him here.Posted using ShareThis
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